沥青日报：冲高回落-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short - term, asphalt is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend, and the arbitrage suggestion is mainly reverse arbitrage. The supply of asphalt is at a low level, and there may be a shortage of raw materials in the future. Although the demand is weak, there is some stocking and arbitrage demand. The price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have available raw material inventories before March, and the asphalt supply will be tight at the end of the month [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt planned production is 193.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 5.80% week - on - week to 214,500 tons. Next week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operation will remain at a low level [1]. - Demand side: The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly declined this week. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 14%. The rigid demand in the north has basically stagnated, but there is stocking and arbitrage demand. Southern projects are gradually entering the final stage [1]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. The Asian sales price of Venezuelan oil has risen [1]. - Price and basis: The asphalt price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is still at a low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,260 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract has risen to - 164 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.38% to 3,424 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,407 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,554 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 24,185 to 145,873 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but is still negative [4]. - Demand side: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 6.0%, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025. As of the week of January 30, most downstream operating rates of asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].