热卷日报：震荡延续-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current supply of hot-rolled coils has slightly increased, the demand is stable and resilient, and the overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The total inventory in social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has improved marginally. In general, the tight balance of supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery. Currently, the macro-loose expectation supports prices. Although there was an overall decline with increased volume today, it was mainly due to market sentiment. The lower support is near this week's low. Adopt a cautiously bullish approach [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Friday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 17,466 lots, with a trading volume of 523,900 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,285 yuan, and the high was 3,325 yuan. There was a decline with reduced open interest during the day. The short-term moving average fell below the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, closing at 3,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.30% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 2 yuan [3] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival, and production enthusiasm increased [4] - Demand side: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. This week's apparent consumption slightly increased and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Inventory side: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week-on-week (social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, and steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in a destocking channel [4] - Policy side: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3.3 Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - Bearish factors: Steel mill复产 in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]