螺纹日报：震荡延续-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on the steel industry [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply of rebar continues to resume production, and the demand is supported by pre - holiday winter stockpiling, showing resilience. The total inventory and social inventory are at a low level year - on - year, and the overall inventory pressure is controllable. The low inventory and resilient demand support the price. The output increased slightly this week, and the strengthening of raw material prices also supports the price. Although the collective decline of non - ferrous metals and precious metals has an impact on sentiment, the market is still in a volatile pattern, and a cautiously bullish approach is maintained [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 51,271 lots on Friday. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, with 1,218,321 lots. The daily moving average fell below the short - term 5 - day moving average and the medium - term 30 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,124 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,174 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,260 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 132 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provides some support, and winter stockpiling in the futures market has certain cost - effectiveness [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 29, the rebar output increased by 0.28 tons week - on - week to 1.9983 million tons, and increased by 0.2216 million tons year - on - year. The output rebounded slightly this week, and the year - on - year growth was significant, indicating that the steel mills' resumption of production momentum accelerated, which put short - term pressure on prices [2] - Demand: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal law of construction site shutdown before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the demand has recovered year - on - year. As of the week of January 29, the apparent demand data was 1.764 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 91,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9785 million tons. There is still support from winter stockpiling demand before the festival [2] - Inventory: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, and the overall inventory was at a low level. As of the week of January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 234,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The social inventory was 3.264 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2388 million tons. The factory inventory was 1.4913 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 537,200 tons. The inventory pressure of manufacturers and social inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing support for prices [2][3] - Macro - level: The central bank has released a moderately loose signal, and the Ministry of Finance has emphasized that the expenditure intensity will only increase. However, due to the drag of real estate demand, the incremental demand is relatively limited at the macro - level. The loose cycle provides some support, and the upper limit of demand determines the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory is at a three - year low, the supply side has reduced production due to anti - involution, capacity is strictly controlled, policies support demand, the post - festival demand will marginally recover, and the macro - economic expectation is loose [4] - Bearish factors: The inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival exceeds expectations, the inventory removal speed slows down, the blast furnace resumes production rapidly, the winter stockpiling demand is cautious, the real estate demand continues to decline, exports are restricted, and the economic recovery is weak [4]