芳烃日报：延续偏强走势，谨防回调风险-20260130

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious bullish view on pure benzene and styrene, suggesting waiting for low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aromatics continue a relatively strong trend, but there is a need to guard against callback risks. The market situation is affected by factors such as inventory in the industrial chain, especially downstream inventory consumption [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 27, the total inventory of styrene in the mainstream storage areas of East China's Jiangsu Province fluctuated in the range of 94,500 - 123,300 tons. The inventory in major ports of East China remained at a historically low level, and spot liquidity was still tight [1] - As of the week of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.71%, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing up prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The capacity utilization rate of PS was 57.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Although some devices resumed production, others reduced production lines. Industry supply was temporarily stable, market shipments were average, and inventory started to rise [1] - The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Manufacturer supply was still very tight, mainly controlling shipments. After the holiday, market inquiries increased, trading volume expanded, and prices rebounded. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of UPR was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the start - up rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, remaining stable month - on - month [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting decided to keep the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range, and policy had no pre - set route, relying on data. He also said that if tariff inflation peaked and then declined, it indicated that policy could be relaxed [2] - The decline in EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending January 23 was the largest since the week of November 7, 2025, and it was the 11th consecutive week of increase. The domestic crude - oil production in that week was the lowest since the week of October 31, 2025 [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene and styrene had a slight intraday pullback, maintaining a cautious bullish view. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the industrial chain, especially downstream inventory consumption. If inventory continued to decline, there was room for further upward movement; otherwise, the probability of a decline was high [3]