玻璃日报：短期震荡-20260130

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, showing a short - term shock signal. The trading volume increased by 361,000 lots and the open interest increased by 43,145 lots compared with the previous day. The closing price was 1056 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.95% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, the situation varied by region. North China was stable, East China had average trading, Central China had some price increases in Hubei, and South China's market center shifted down [1] - The basis in North China was - 36 yuan/ton with a spot price of 1020 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.057 million tons, flat month - on - month and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat month - on - month. One production line was restarted but had not yet produced glass [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% month - on - month and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [2] - Import and Export: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, a 93.63% increase year - on - year [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to shrink further. However, real - estate demand has not improved, and downstream demand is expected to weaken further after February. The short - term price may fluctuate [4]