养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260130

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. Soybeans are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillatory trend [1]. - Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline, it can be considered to buy on dips [1]. - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs, and due to a marginal improvement in the存栏量 compared to the second half of last year, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2]. - Pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show continuous growth. The far - month needs to focus on capacity reduction in the recent two months and the number of reproductive sows [3][4]. Summary by Commodity Soybeans - In the Northeast production area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain in the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein - content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. Multiple domestic soybean two - way bidding transactions by the China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation have all been successfully concluded recently, indicating certain market demand support [1]. Corn - In the production area of Northeast China, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' willingness to hold prices has slightly weakened, and the phenomenon of farmers threshing and selling grain for cash has increased, resulting in a slight improvement in the supply of grass - roots corn. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for pre - Spring Festival stockpiling in the feed and deep - processing industries, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some factories has increased. However, due to the relatively high price of dry grain, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days, and the factory's raw material inventory is relatively safe, with a cautious market sentiment [1]. Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the basic market supply capacity is sufficient. The culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down. With the recent rapid and substantial increase in egg prices, the breeding income has expanded, and farmers' confidence has been restored. There is a common idea in the industry to delay the culling of old hens and even carry out molting later, resulting in a decrease in the number of old hens sold and a slowdown in the reduction of production capacity. According to the breeding cycle, the recently newly - opened laying hens were the chicks replenished around October 2025. Although the egg prices at that time inhibited some replenishment, the established production capacity is still being gradually opened, resulting in a situation of "old hens not leaving, new hens coming", which keeps the overall national production capacity at a high level [2]. Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, currently 101.6% of the normal inventory. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the previous year - end. The pig inventory at the end of 2025 was still higher than the same period last year, indicating that pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show continuous growth. The far - month needs to focus on capacity reduction in the recent two months and the number of reproductive sows [2][3][4].