PVC日报：震荡上行-20260130

Report Overview - The report, "PVC Daily: Oscillating Upward," is released by Guantong Futures on January 30, 2026, providing an analysis of the PVC market [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of oscillating upward, but due to factors such as high inventory and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to observe the market cautiously [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.19 percentage points to 78.93%, at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has decreased by 0.11 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to stock up is low [1]. - Affected by the cancellation of export tax - rebates, there is a rush to export, and PVC export orders have increased significantly. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing. Due to the cold wave in the US, domestic export orders continue to increase slightly [1]. - Social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level, with significant inventory pressure. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement of the real - estate market still takes time [1]. - The sentiment in the chemical sector is boosted, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure. Some production enterprises' operating expectations are decreasing, but the current production decline is limited [1]. - January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. Near the Spring Festival, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the PVC market fluctuates greatly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and oscillated upward, with a closing price of 5063 yuan/ton, a gain of 3.41%. The trading volume increased by 30,557 lots to 1,046,450 lots [2]. - On January 30, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4785 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5063 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 278 yuan/ton, weakening by 68 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by devices such as Yibin Tianyuan and Xinjiang Tianye, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.93%. New production capacities of several enterprises were put into production or trial - produced in 2025 [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. In 2025 from January to December, real - estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 25, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, at a low level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 29, PVC social inventory increased by 2.45% month - on - month to 1.2064 million tons, 60.54% higher than the same period last year [6].