每日核心期货品种分析-20260130

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 30, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Platinum and palladium dropped nearly 12%, lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down with a 10.99% decline, and tin futures fell over 8%. PVC rose over 3% and logs rose over 2%. In the bond market, the 2 - year Treasury futures (TS) main contract remained flat, the 5 - year (TF) rose 0.01%, the 10 - year (T) rose 0.06%, and the 30 - year (TL) fell 0.23%. In terms of funds, PVC2605, ten - year bond 2603, and pulp 2605 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2604, Shanghai silver 2604, and CSI 2603 had capital outflows [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, tin, silver, gold, and other metals fell, while PVC and logs rose. In the stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, and in the bond futures, there were different trends. As of 15:20 on January 30, PVC2605, ten - year bond 2603, and pulp 2605 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2604, Shanghai silver 2604, and CSI 2603 had capital outflows [4][5] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened high but closed lower. Supply was affected by a strike at a Chilean copper mine, and the TC/RC fees were weak and trending down. SMM expected a 1.23% month - on - month decrease in domestic electrolytic copper production in January. Demand showed that copper apparent consumption increased in December 2025, but near the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, SMEs' procurement willingness was low. The real estate policy change was positive, and the possible change of the Fed chairman and dollar depreciation affected the market. After a previous rise, profit - taking led to a downward turn [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and hit the daily limit down. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate declined. Supply was affected by a planned restart of some production lines and the suspension of a lithium mine. The export tax - rebate policy for batteries was adjusted. Inventory was being depleted, and downstream production schedules in the first quarter were expected to be good. However, terminal new - energy vehicle sales declined in January, and after a meeting, the market was affected by negative news [9] Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Due to winter storms, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and production losses reached up to 2 million barrels per day. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast, and cold weather increased diesel demand. However, the global crude oil floating storage was high, and the supply was still in surplus. Geopolitical risks in Iran continued to rise, and the situation in Kazakhstan's oil fields was improving. Crude oil prices were oscillating strongly [10][11] Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 decreased to 25.5% this week, and the February production was expected to decline. Downstream开工率 mostly fell, and the national shipments decreased. The refinery inventory rate remained at a low level. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude to domestic refineries was restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining it increased. In the short term, asphalt was expected to oscillate strongly, and the arbitrage suggestion was reverse arbitrage [12][13] PP - The PP downstream开工率 decreased to 52.08% this week. The enterprise开工率 fell to 78.5%, and the proportion of standard - grade drawing production increased. Petrochemical inventories were at a low level. With rising crude oil prices, PP was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the improvement in the supply - demand pattern was limited, and the sustainability of the rebound was to be treated with caution. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [14] Plastic - The plastic开工率 rose to 90% on January 30. The PE downstream开工率 decreased to 37.76%, and orders and raw - material inventories in the agricultural film and packaging film sectors decreased. Petrochemical inventories were at a low level. With rising crude oil prices, plastic was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the supply - demand improvement was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [15][16] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest was stable. The PVC开工率 increased slightly to 78.93%, and the downstream开工率 decreased slightly. PVC exports increased due to the cancellation of export tax - rebates, but the transaction resistance increased. Social inventories continued to rise, and the real estate market was still in adjustment. The PVC market was volatile, and caution was advised [17] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed higher. As the Spring Festival approached, domestic mines started holidays, and the mine inventory started to accumulate. Downstream iron - water production decreased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented. The market sentiment was volatile, and the coking coal price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [19] Urea - Urea opened high and closed lower, falling over 1%. The spot price was stable due to good pre - sales. In February, there would be复产 of gas - head devices, and the daily output was close to 210,000 tons. Agricultural dealers' purchases increased, but downstream factory开工率 decreased. Inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the urea futures market was expected to be resistant to decline and mainly trade in a high - level range [20]