铁矿日报：下游累库，刚需存支撑-20260130

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Although the inventory pressure is increasing, the demand-side restocking before the Spring Festival supports the ore price. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, with the futures at a discount [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated within the day, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 278,000 lots, the open interest was 541,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.424 billion yuan. The futures price may continue to be slightly strong in the near future [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The basis widened slightly, and the iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while those from Brazil and non-mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, with supply-side disturbances expected due to weather. The molten iron output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the steel mill profit margin weakened. The steel mills' restocking speed accelerated, and the inventory pressure continued to accumulate [2] - The decrease in arrivals eased the short-term supply pressure, but the inventory pressure continued to increase. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre-festival restocking on the demand side supported the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remained to be verified [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, the week continued the pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand was slow, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the willingness of residents and enterprises for long - term financing was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented, and the market was waiting for policy effects and data confirmation [3] - Overseas, the US consumption remained resilient, but its internal driving force was weakening. Core inflation continued to cool, but the stickiness of service items remained. The market's focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, and the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased [3] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply pressure has eased slightly, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4]