市场情绪切换，钢矿震荡回落：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.48%, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest. Currently, rebar supply is stable while demand is weak, and the fundamentals remain weak. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, but the cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.30%, also with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [5]. - Iron ore: The main contract price of iron ore rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded. However, with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, and the demand for iron ore is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - National general public budget revenue: In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease compared to 2024. Tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery trend throughout the year, reflecting the stable and progressive development of the Chinese economy. Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly because the one - time arrangement of special income remittance by central units in 2024 raised the base [7]. - Transportation fixed - asset investment: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment continued to operate at a high level, with an expected investment of over 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment was 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment was 120 billion yuan [8]. - Vietnamese anti - dumping measures on Chinese H - beams: Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the anti - dumping duties on H - beams originating from China will expire on September 6, 2027. Interested parties should submit an application for anti - dumping sunset review investigation before February 27, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel products: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin, as well as the national average prices, are provided. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,317 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai (4.75mm) was 3,270 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the national average price was 3,300 yuan, down 1 yuan [10]. - Iron ore: The prices of PB powder (at Shandong ports), Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indicators such as freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indices are presented. For instance, the price of PB powder was 789 yuan, down 9 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,128 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, an increase of 191,871 lots, and the open interest was 1,734,110 lots, a decrease of 51,270 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,288 yuan, with a decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, an increase of 89,353 lots, and the open interest was 1,529,652 lots, a decrease of 17,466 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, a decrease of 29,418 lots, and the open interest was 541,228 lots, a decrease of 14,164 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 to 2026 [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, including their seasonal changes and环比 changes [24][25][28]. - Steel mill production: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills from 2022 to 2026 [32][34][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the shutdown of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, which drags down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the steel price oscillates and stabilizes under the dominant optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: There are changes in both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil, and the inventory reduction has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.80 tons, reaching a relatively high level again, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience, with a slight increase in weekly apparent demand, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the potential contradiction accumulation, and the external demand for exports is average. The demand resilience needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand, and attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions [40]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore runs smoothly. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the steel market in the off - season are accumulating, and steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will continue to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. According to the shipping schedule, the reduction in port arrivals is limited, and the domestic ore supply is stable, coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].