尿素日报：回吐涨幅-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea futures opened high and trended lower today, falling by over 1%. Although the spot price still rose today due to good order receipts in previous days, the futures market gave back previous gains. With the upstream production increasing and downstream factories on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Next week, as agricultural demand for fertilizers enters an active stage, the urea futures market is likely to have strong resistance to decline and will mainly trade in a high - level consolidation range [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Urea futures opened high and trended lower today, falling by over 1%. The spot price still rose today, and the price remained stable supported by advance orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1720 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices. In February, there will still be gas - head plants resuming production, and there are no current maintenance plans. The upstream plants can provide sufficient urea production, with the daily output approaching 210,000 tons. Agricultural dealers are actively purchasing, and the purchase of winter and wax fertilizers and wheat green - turning top - dressing has increased month - on - month. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, more downstream factories are on holiday. The operating load of compound fertilizer factories has decreased by 1.62% month - on - month but is still 19.34% higher year - on - year. Although the inventory continued to decline this period, the change was extremely low. With the increase in upstream production, the production and sales of the upstream and downstream are basically balanced, and the inventory has slightly decreased as agricultural demand gradually starts. The futures market is expected to have strong resistance to decline and will mainly trade in a high - level consolidation range [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1817 yuan/ton, opened high and trended lower during the day, falling by over 1%, and finally closed at 1790 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.32%. The trading volume was 246,294 lots, a decrease of 14,612 lots. Among the top twenty positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3,601 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,962 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of - 1,692 lots, COFCO Futures had a net long position of - 1,975 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of - 6,407 lots, and Yide Futures had a net short position of - 652 lots. On January 30, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,690, a decrease of 9 compared to the previous trading day, with Anhui Zhongneng (factory warehouse) decreasing by 9 [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The order receipts in previous days were good, and the spot price still rose today. Supported by advance orders, the price remained stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1720 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - In terms of the basis, the mainstream spot market quotation rose today, while the futures closing price fell. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. On January 30, 2026, the national daily urea output was 209,000 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 84.86% [7][10]