塑料日报：震荡运行-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 30, 2026, the restart of the maintenance devices such as Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE led to a rise in the plastics operating rate to around 90%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, the plastics market will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. However, the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, so the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The restart of Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE and other maintenance devices on January 30 increased the plastics operating rate to around 90%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The increase in crude oil prices is due to cold - driven diesel heating demand and the geopolitical situation in Iran. New production capacities of plastics were put into operation in January 2026. The downstream demand is expected to continue to decline, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 6945 yuan/ton, the highest was 7139 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7014 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The position volume decreased by 9081 lots to 503743 lots [2]. Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from -50 to +100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6820 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8190 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 30, the plastics operating rate rose to around 90% after the restart of Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE and other maintenance devices, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%. Orders and raw material inventory of agricultural films and packaging films decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 30,000 tons to 445,000 tons, 115,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $69/barrel, and the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $700/ton and $685/ton respectively [4].