沥青月报：强预期推升盘面，关注地缘局势演绎-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current asphalt market shows a typical pattern of "strong expectations, weak reality." The upward movement of the futures market is mainly driven by the expected increase in raw material costs due to geopolitical factors, while the spot market is constrained by weak fundamentals, leading to a significant weakening of the basis. The deeply discounted structure may attract arbitrage funds, potentially bringing selling pressure to far - month contracts. The main upward driver for prices remains the cost side, and the key risk lies in the confirmation of the "weak reality" [54]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In January, affected by tight raw materials and strong oil prices, asphalt prices rebounded from the bottom, with a cumulative increase of 14.5% since the beginning of the year. Tensions in the Middle East and restricted imports of diluted asphalt supported the market [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Geopolitical Tensions: The risk of intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has increased, with potential impacts on the oil market. The outcome of US military intervention will determine the direction of oil prices. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues in a pattern of "fighting while negotiating," with limited short - term direct impact on oil prices [9][10]. - OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in January and reaffirmed the plan to suspend production increases in the first quarter. The group's crude oil production decreased month - on - month in December. The suspension of production increases provides support for oil prices [13]. - Fed Policy: The Fed paused interest rate cuts, but there were internal disagreements. The market expects no interest rate cuts in the next two meetings under Powell, but Trump's potential new Fed chair appointment may increase the market's expectation of rate cuts [16]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In January, domestic asphalt production decreased month - on - month, and refinery operating rates also declined. If raw material imports are restricted, the cost of the industry may rise, and the operations of local refineries may be restricted [17][23]. - Demand: In January, domestic asphalt shipments decreased month - on - month, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity declined seasonally. The demand is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival [25][27]. - Imports and Exports: In December, asphalt imports decreased month - on - month with a slight decline in the average import price, while exports increased month - on - month with a slight decline in the average export price [32][37]. - Inventory: In January, factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories entered a cumulative cycle. Factory inventories may face further accumulation pressure in the off - season [42][46]. - Price Difference: In January, the cracking spread of asphalt remained high, and the processing profit of diluted asphalt rebounded. The basis of asphalt weakened significantly under the "strong expectations, weak reality" background [50].