焦煤焦炭月度报告-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the coking coal fundamentals, in January 2026, the supply of coking coal gradually recovered, with a slightly loose supply - side. However, in February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the supply will tighten. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, the upstream inventory of coking coal has decreased, and the inventory structure has improved significantly compared with the same period last year. Before the Spring Festival, there is no prominent contradiction in supply - demand, and it is expected to operate in a volatile manner [8]. - From the coke fundamentals, since January, the overall coke production has maintained a relatively stable trend but has declined compared with the same period last year. In February, facing the Spring Festival holiday, the production of independent coking enterprises will decline. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises has remained relatively stable, driving the coke consumption to stabilize. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased, while the steel mills' inventory has increased. The coking enterprises' inventory structure has improved, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is not large. The increase in coking enterprises' losses has strengthened the willingness to raise coke prices, but the increase was postponed due to weak steel demand, low steel prices, and poor steel mill efficiency [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - Coking coal: In January 2026, coking coal supply recovered, supply - side was slightly loose. In February, supply will tighten due to the Spring Festival. Downstream inventory replenishment led to upstream inventory reduction. Before the Spring Festival, with stable fundamentals and obvious changes in macro - sentiment, the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Coke: Since January, coke production has been relatively stable but lower than last year. In February, independent coking enterprise production will decline. Hot - metal output is stable, supporting coke demand. Coking enterprises' inventory has improved, and they want to raise prices, but the increase was postponed due to weak steel market [11]. 3.2焦煤基本面 (Coking Coal Fundamentals) - Supply: As of January 30, the coking coal supply gradually recovered in January. The opening rate of 523 sample mines was 89.13%, up 9.5% from the beginning of the month and 37.46% from the same period last year, with a daily output of 77.07 tons. The opening rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 36.8%, up 1.71% from the beginning of the month. In February, supply will tighten due to the Spring Festival [14]. - Import: In December 2025, China's coking coal imports reached 13.7698 million tons, a significant increase from the same period in 2024. Mongolia's imports in December reached a record high. In 2025, China's total coking coal imports were 118.6256 million tons, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, showing a "low - then - high" trend. "Mongolia + Russia" coal still dominated, and Canadian coal imports increased [15]. - Inventory: As of January 30, the inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.6718 million tons, 1.144 million tons less than last year. The inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants first increased and then decreased. Port inventory decreased slightly. Independent coking enterprises replenished inventory more strongly than steel mills. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 12.3479 million tons, an increase of 1.8682 million tons compared with last year, while the inventory of steel enterprises decreased [19][22]. 3.3焦炭基本面 (Coke Fundamentals) - Production: Since January, the overall coke production has been relatively stable but lower than last year. As of January 30, the capacity utilization rate was 71.86%, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 628,400 tons. In February, the production of independent coking enterprises will decline [24]. - Demand: Since January, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises has been relatively stable, driving coke consumption to stabilize. As of January 30, the daily average hot - metal output of 24 steel enterprises was 2.2798 million tons, and coke consumption was 1.0259 million tons, slightly higher than last year. Coking enterprises' inventory has improved, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is not large [31]. - Inventory: Since January, the inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased, while the steel mills' inventory has increased. As of January 30, the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 843,900 tons, 589,100 tons less than last year, and the steel mills' inventory was 6.7819 million tons, 225,500 tons less than last year. Port inventory increased in late January [34]. - Price Increase: Since January, the average loss per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises has gradually increased and then narrowed at the end of the month. In mid - January, many coking enterprises issued price - increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 but postponed to January 30 due to weak steel demand, low prices, and poor steel mill efficiency [37].