Guoxin Securities·2026-01-30 12:50Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the LCD industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The LCD industry is experiencing a stabilization in capacity, with a concentration of market share expected due to the shutdown and sale of production lines by overseas manufacturers. This is anticipated to enhance the pricing power of LCD TV panel producers, leading to improved profitability [6] - The report highlights the growth potential of leading domestic panel manufacturers like BOE Technology Group, which is well-positioned to benefit from China's consumption upgrade and localization trends [6] Market Performance Review - From December 2025 to January 2026, the panel index increased by 11.55%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component by 5.76 percentage points and 2.53 percentage points, respectively [4] - As of January 20, 2026, the total market capitalization of the A-share panel industry was 604.92 billion yuan, with an overall price-to-book ratio of 1.71x, positioned at the 82.5 percentile of the past five years [4][12] Price & Cost Analysis - In January 2026, the prices of various sizes of LCD TV panels increased, with 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch panels priced at $34, $61, $92, $115, and $163 respectively, reflecting increases of 3.0%, 1.7%, 1.1%, 0.9%, and 0.6% month-over-month [19] - Omdia forecasts further price increases for February 2026, with expected prices of $36, $63, $94, $117, and $165 for the same sizes, indicating month-over-month increases of 5.9%, 3.3%, 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.2% [19] Supply & Demand Dynamics - In December 2025, the global shipment area for large-sized LCD panels grew by 8.82% year-over-year, with notable increases in shipments for TVs (8.74%), monitors (4.44%), notebooks (13.27%), and tablets (21.30%) [5][27] - The report anticipates a 2.31% increase in global large-sized LCD capacity area in 2024 compared to 2023, with a slight growth forecast for 2025 [5] Performance Review - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December 2025 reached $6.423 billion, marking a month-over-month increase of 15.52% and a year-over-year increase of 4.71% [57] - The report notes that BOE, TCL, and Huike experienced varying revenue growth rates in December 2025, with BOE's revenue at $1.6 billion, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 8.11% [60]