铝月报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a complex situation with multiple influencing factors. The macro - environment has both positive and negative aspects, and the supply - demand relationship is also in a state of change. In terms of operation, it is recommended to take a long - position approach on pullbacks. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high due to cost support and the tight supply of scrap aluminum [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 - It is recommended to take a long - position approach on pullbacks. Aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and its price is likely to remain high due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and cost support. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [5]. 3.2行情回顾 - In January, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. The alumina futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices showed a strong trend [7]. 3.3宏观面 - US Economic Situation: The US economic data is mixed. The GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was revised upwards, the initial jobless claims increased slightly, and the PCE price index rose moderately. The labor market is still slowing down. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts in 2025. The next Fed rate cut may drive a new round of rise in non - ferrous metals, and the specific timing of the rate cut is worthy of attention [9][10]. - Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical potential risks are escalating, and the global aluminum premium transmission is intensifying [13]. - Domestic Economic Situation: China's economy generally remains stable, and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. The central bank will maintain the LPR unchanged. The GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been issued, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [14][16]. - Supply Situation: The domestic supply of bauxite is in a tight pattern. In December 2025, the domestic bauxite output increased slightly month - on - month, and the short - term supply increase is limited. Overseas, the supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to be stable, with an estimated export volume of 180 million tons in 2026, but the supply from Australia has decreased. The alumina production capacity is increasing, but there are many maintenance and production cuts recently, and the supply pressure has decreased [17][18][21][23]. 3.4基本面 - Electrolytic Aluminum: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase at a high level, but the overall supply is restricted. In December 2025, the output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. In January, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased to 44.1 million tons, and the output was 3.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Overseas, the release of production capacity is lower than expected [26][27][30]. - Aluminum Processing: Affected by the Spring Festival effect and high aluminum prices, the operating rate of aluminum processing has decreased month - on - month. The overall operating rate of aluminum processing is 59.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week [32][33]. - Real Estate Market: The real estate market is still in the adjustment period. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area were - 16.6%, - 36.8%, - 19.3%, and - 18.4% respectively. The annual data also showed a decline, but the sales decline has narrowed, and there may be an improvement in real estate expectations [35]. - Automobile and Photovoltaic Industries: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached a new high, with new energy vehicle production and sales exceeding 16 million. The new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 19 million in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of automobiles is expected to reach 7.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The new photovoltaic installation in December 2025 decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.3% [39][41]. - Inventory Situation: The LME aluminum inventory is in a continuous destocking state, while the SHFE aluminum inventory is in a seasonal inventory accumulation state. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is in the inventory accumulation channel, and the inventory accumulation pressure is expected to continue in February. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the scrap aluminum market is in short supply, and the cost support remains [42][43][46][52]. - Aluminum Export and Import: In 2025, the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In December, the export decreased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the import increased by 33.3% year - on - year. The export of aluminum products is expected to remain stable in January [50].