山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals experienced a significant pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 4.71%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 6.03%, the main contract of platinum closed down 11.79%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 11.87%. The short - term risk - aversion factors related to trade wars and geopolitical risks have eased in the short term but still exist in the medium and long term. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation support the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2] - Price data: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $5410.80 per ounce, down $37.00 (-0.68%) from the previous day and up $472.40 (9.57%) from the previous week. The London gold price was $5405.00 per ounce, up $98.05 (1.85%) from the previous day and up $572.95 (11.86%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1161.42 yuan per gram, down 87.70 yuan (-7.02%) from the previous day and up 45.78 yuan (4.10%) from the previous week [2] - Position and inventory data: The position of Comex gold was 528,004 lots, an increase of 549 lots (0.10%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 187,290 lots, a decrease of 24,530 lots (-11.58%) from the previous day and a decrease of 19,290 lots (-9.34%) from the previous week. The LBMA gold inventory was 9,106 tons, an increase of 200 tons (2.24%) from the previous week [2] Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit [4] - Price data: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $115.79 per ounce, down $0.84 (-0.72%) from the previous day and up $19.57 (20.34%) from the previous week. The London silver price was $118.45 per ounce, up $5.66 (5.01%) from the previous day and up $25.07 (26.85%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 27,941 yuan per kilogram, down 2,950 yuan (-9.55%) from the previous day and up 2,976 yuan (11.92%) from the previous week [4] - Position and inventory data: The position of Comex silver was 152,020 lots, unchanged from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,912,390 lots, a decrease of 305,880 lots (-7.25%) from the previous day and a decrease of 832,845 lots (-17.55%) from the previous week. The LBMA silver inventory was 27,818 tons, an increase of 631 tons (2.32%) from the previous week [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with good position management and stop - loss/take - profit [6] - Price data: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2627.10 per ounce, up $148.30 (5.98%) from the previous day and up $211.30 (8.75%) from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2507.00 per ounce, up $5.00 (0.20%) from the previous day and up $121.00 (5.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the GQEX was 685.90 yuan per gram, up 52.05 yuan (8.21%) from the previous day and up 75.85 yuan (12.43%) from the previous week [7] - Position and inventory data: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 66,423 lots, a decrease of 341 lots (-0.51%) from the previous day and an increase of 399 lots (0.26%) from the previous week. The NYMEX platinum inventory was 21 tons, a decrease of 0 tons (-1.46%) from the previous day and an increase of 1 ton (4.94%) from the previous week [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit [8] - Price data: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1945.50 per ounce, up $71.00 (3.79%) from the previous day and up $80.00 (4.29%) from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1850.00 per ounce, up $44.00 (2.35%) from the previous day and up $44.00 (2.44%) from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the GQEX was 497.95 yuan per gram, up 14.20 yuan (2.94%) from the previous day and up 28.60 yuan (6.09%) from the previous week [9] - Position and inventory data: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 17,998 lots, a decrease of 40 lots (-0.22%) from the previous day and a decrease of 395 lots (-2.15%) from the previous week. The NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (2.54%) from the previous week [9] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary attributes: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate was 3.75%, also a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve were $6,638.091 billion, an increase of $5.371 billion (0.00%) [10] - Inflation in the US: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, unchanged; the month - on - month CPI was 0.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points. The year - on - year core CPI was 2.60%, unchanged; the month - on - month core CPI was 0.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points [10] - US economic growth: The annualized year - on - year GDP was 2.40%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points; the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP was 4.40%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points. The unemployment rate was 4.40%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points [10] - US labor market: The monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 50,000, a decrease of 6,000. The labor participation rate was 62.10%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points. The average hourly wage growth rate was 3.80%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points [10] - US real estate market: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, a decrease of 2.00 points (-5.13%). Existing home sales were 4.35 million units, an increase of 240,000 units (5.84%); new home sales were 570,000 units, unchanged; new home starts were 1.061 million units, unchanged [10] - US consumption: The year - on - year retail sales were 3.09%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points; the month - on - month retail sales were - 0.10%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.40% year - on - year, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; and increased by 0.51% month - on - month, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [10][12] - US industry: The year - on - year industrial production index was 1.99%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points; the month - on - month industrial production index was 0.37%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate was 76.26%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [12] - US trade: The year - on - year export was - 30.01%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points; the month - on - month export was 1.14%, an increase of 4.38 percentage points. The year - on - year import was - 28.69%, a decrease of 9.61 percentage points; the month - on - month import was 8.71%, an increase of 9.72 percentage points. The trade balance was - $56.8 billion, a decrease of $27.6 billion (-94.57%) [12] - US economic surveys: The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 47.90, a decrease of 0.30 points; the ISM services PMI index was 54.40, an increase of 1.80 points. The Michigan consumer confidence index was 56.40, an increase of 5.40 points [12] - Central bank gold reserves: China's gold reserves were 2,306.32 tons, an increase of 1.87 tons (0.08%); the US gold reserves were 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's gold reserves were 36,362.76 tons, unchanged [12] - IMF foreign exchange reserve ratio: The US dollar accounted for 56.32%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points (-2.53%); the euro accounted for 21.13%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points (5.61%); the RMB accounted for 2.12%, a decrease of 0.00 percentage points (-0.03%) [12] - Gold/foreign exchange reserves: China's ratio was 8.34%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points (4.06%); the US ratio was 81.98%, an increase of 0.88 percentage points (1.08%) [12] - Risk - aversion attributes: The geopolitical risk index was 67.15, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 83.42 points (-55.41%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 16.88, an increase of 0.53 points (3.24%) from the previous day and an increase of 1.24 points (7.93%) from the previous week [12] - Commodity attributes: The CRB commodity index was 323.71, an increase of 4.81 points (1.51%) from the previous day and an increase of 11.47 points (3.67%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9445, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 0.0156 points (-0.22%) from the previous week [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at each meeting date from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided. For example, at the meeting on March 18, 2026, the probability of the interest rate in the range of 325 - 350 was 15.4%, and the probability of 350 - 375 was 84.6% [15]