股指期货将震荡整理白银、铜、铝、锡期货价格再创历史,新高,黄金、白银、铜、铝、镍、锡期货将偏弱宽幅震荡,原油、燃料油期货将偏强宽幅震荡,焦煤期货将震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-30 13:57
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on January 30, 2026, and the overall trends of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - January 30, 2026 Futures Main Contract Outlook: - Index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) will fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - Gold (AU2604), silver (AG2604), copper (CU2603), aluminum (AL2603), nickel (NI2603), tin (SN2603), and lithium carbonate (LC2605) futures will have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and silver, copper, aluminum, and tin will reach new highs [2]. - Coking coal (JM2605) futures will fluctuate strongly [2]. - Crude oil (SC2603) and fuel oil (FU2603) futures will have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - January 2026 Futures Main (Continuous) Contract Outlook: - Index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) will generally show a strong or strong - fluctuating trend, and IM will reach a new high [5]. - Gold (AU), silver (AG), copper (CU), aluminum (AL), tin (SN), and lithium carbonate (LC) futures main continuous contracts will be strongly fluctuating and reach new highs [5]. - Nickel (NI) futures main continuous contract will be strongly fluctuating [5]. - Crude oil (SC) futures main continuous contract will have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Coking coal (JM2605) will have a wide - range fluctuation [5]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - Domestic News: - Sino - British leaders met, reaching a series of positive results, including promoting bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership, establishing a financial working group, and China considering visa - free policies for British citizens. China also reduced the import tariff on whisky from 10% to 5% [6]. - The State Council issued a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, targeting key service consumption areas such as transportation, housekeeping, and online audio - visual [6]. - The Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 is expected to see 9.5 billion cross - regional trips, a record high. Highways will be free for small cars during the Spring Festival, and the railway group introduced new refund policies [6]. - The 2026 National Spring Festival Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month was launched, with about 30,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities, over 360 million yuan in consumption vouchers, and various preferential measures [7]. - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance advanced the central government's subsidy funds for assisting people in difficulty in 2026, amounting to 141 billion yuan, and implemented "small - scale and rapid relief" [7]. - International News: - The U.S. Congress Senate failed to advance a government funding bill, and the U.S. federal government is at risk of a partial shutdown [7]. - U.S. President Trump said that Russian President Putin agreed to suspend air strikes on Ukraine for a week due to cold weather. Trump also plans to announce the nomination for the next Fed chair next week and reopen the Venezuelan airspace [8]. - The U.S. trade deficit in November 2025 was $56.8 billion, a 95% increase from the previous month. Exports decreased by 3.6% to $292.1 billion, and imports increased by 5% to $348.9 billion [8]. - Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz from February 1 to 2, including live - fire shooting [8]. - South Africa is considering imposing a maximum 50% tariff on imported vehicles from China and India [8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On January 29, the CME Group raised the margin for COMEX copper futures by 20% and the initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures from 5% to 6%, effective after the close on January 30 [8]. - In 2025, global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, a record high, with a total demand value of $555 billion. Gold investment demand reached 2,175 tons, and gold ETFs increased by 801 tons [9]. - On January 29, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.32% to $5,410.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.98% to $115.78 per ounce [9]. - On January 29, U.S. and Brent crude oil futures rose, with geopolitical risks driving up supply - disruption expectations [9]. - Venezuela's National Assembly passed a bill to reform the oil law, allowing private and foreign investment in the oil industry [9]. - On January 29, London base metals showed mixed results, with LME copper up 4.73%, LME zinc up 2.65%, and LME nickel up 1.37%, while LME tin fell 2.6% [10]. - On January 29, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.946, down 7 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9506. The central parity rate was 6.9771, down 16 basis points [10]. - The U.S. Treasury added 10 economies to the foreign - exchange monitoring list [10]. - On January 29, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.20% to 96.16, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [11]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Index Futures: - On January 29, IF2603, IH2603, and IM2603 showed different trends, with short - term upward or downward pressures [11][12][13]. - IC2603 had a short - term decline, with reduced upward momentum and increased downward pressure [13]. - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation on January 29, with different performances among major indices [14]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose on January 29, reaching a nearly 4 - year high [14]. - U.S. and European stock markets had mixed performance on January 29 [15]. - Gold Futures: - On January 29, AU2604 had a significant increase, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it declined, with increased short - term downward pressure [34][35]. - The precious metal market had large fluctuations on January 29 [36]. - Silver Futures: - On January 29, AG2604 rose significantly, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it had a wide - range decline, with increased short - term downward pressure [39][40]. - Copper Futures: - On January 29, CU2603 rose significantly, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it continued to rise, with increased short - term downward pressure [47]. - Aluminum Futures: - On January 29, AL2603 had a weak rise, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it continued to rise, with increased short - term downward pressure [51]. - Nickel Futures: - On January 29, NI2603 rose slightly, with short - term upward momentum [59]. - Tin Futures: - On January 29, SN2603 rose slightly, with short - term upward momentum [62]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: - On January 29, LC2605 declined slightly, with increased short - term downward pressure [68]. - Coking Coal Futures: - On January 29, JM2605 rose, with short - term upward momentum [72]. - Crude Oil Futures: - On January 29, SC2603 rose, with short - term upward momentum [79]. - Fuel Oil Futures: - On January 29, FU2603 rose, with short - term upward momentum [84].