芳烃市场周报：地缘局势紧张成本面支撑偏强（PX，纯苯，苯乙烯）-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX has been in a relatively strong pattern since the fourth quarter due to improved downstream demand, positive news, and rising cost - end prices. However, there is a lack of further support from the supply - demand side. The absolute price is mainly supported by strong crude oil. It is expected that the tight pattern may continue during the maintenance season from March to May 2026, but the supply will return, and the situation will ease compared to before. [6] - Pure benzene has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the demand side has improved. Although the high - import and high - inventory situation is difficult to change, the short - term market still has support. [7] - Styrene's performance in the traditional peak season in 2025 was not as expected. After November, the supply - demand structure improved. Recently, the spot and futures prices have increased significantly, but the fundamentals may weaken in the short term. The export in February still supports demand, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern has improved significantly compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Price - The ex - factory price of Sinopec's PX in January was significantly raised to 7,500 yuan/ton, and the settlement price in December was 7,020 yuan/ton. The PX futures price has been in high - level shock, and the basis has widened. [6] Supply - Zhejiang Petrochemical's reform was under maintenance for 15 - 20 days this week, and the PX load continued to decrease. Zhonghua Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX unit restarted this week but has not produced qualified products yet. This week's PX output was 743,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 89.87%, and the Asian weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 79.31%, both with a month - on - month increase of 0%. [6] Demand - The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate this week was 75.83%, remaining flat month - on - month and down 4.60% year - on - year. The domestic PTA capacity utilization rate remained stable this week. [6] Strategy - In the short term, PX is in high - level consolidation. The PX - BZ spread has continuously narrowed since the beginning of the year. One can choose the opportunity to take profit. [6] Pure Benzene Price - The futures price of pure benzene has risen significantly recently, from around 5,400 yuan/ton at the beginning of January. It has continuously increased with the rise in oil prices and the improvement in downstream demand. [7] Supply and Demand - In December, the national pure benzene output was 1.9228 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The estimated import volume in December was 470,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The supply - demand situation has shifted from oversupply to undersupply. [7] Inventory - As of this week, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in China was 323,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 139.26%. [7] Strategy - If the geopolitical situation on the cost side eases, one can consider taking profit by narrowing the PX - BZ spread. If the pure benzene - styrene spread further rises, one can choose the opportunity to narrow the processing spread. [7] Styrene Price - The recent increase in the main styrene contract is mainly due to the increase in the cost side and the external price of aromatics, as well as the positive impact of the chemical industry sector. The current mainstream price in East China is 8,050 yuan/ton, up from before. [8] Profit - The average profit of China's non - integrated styrene units this week was 713 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 272 yuan/ton, or 61.65%. The daily profit on January 29 was 758 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The theoretical cash - flow cost of domestic non - integrated styrene units is 6,992 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow profit is 1,058 yuan/ton. [8] Supply - China's total styrene output was 347,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 tons, or 0.52%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 69.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%. The overall supply is expected to continue to increase. [8] Demand - The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) was 270,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons, or 1.2%. The overall demand of the three major downstream factories increased slightly. [8] Inventory - As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 155,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.06%. It is expected that the inventory may continue to accumulate slightly next week. [8] Strategy - One can pay attention to the opportunity to narrow the spread at a high level, which was continuously widened by the continuous rise of pure benzene. [9]