美元走强+情绪回落，铂钯大幅回调

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the precious metals market, expecting an optimistic path for interest rate cuts. However, it suggests short - term investors to wait and watch due to uncertainties in US platinum tariffs and the actual nomination of the Fed Chairman, and to look for buying opportunities after price stabilization [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 30, 2026, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline of market sentiment, platinum and palladium futures contracts on GFEX tumbled. The platinum main contract dropped 8.79% to 657 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract dropped 7.25% to 48.85 yuan per gram. The change in market expectations due to the possible appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. Also, OME's increase in margin requirements cooled market sentiment [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply: In 2026, major platinum and palladium mining companies are expected to maintain stable production with output recovery, but overall production is limited due to few new project launches. Global platinum mine and refined production are expected to rise 2.8% and 4.8% to 173.6 tons and 228.2 tons respectively, and palladium mine and refined production are expected to rise 0.3% and 2.2% to 198.9 tons and 209.4 tons respectively. Attention should be paid to short - term supply risks caused by bad weather, labor disputes, and power shortages [4] - Demand: In 2026, global economic recovery will drive the continued recovery of platinum industrial demand and an upward trend in jewelry demand, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Platinum investment demand may be stimulated by price fluctuations and domestic futures listing, with an expected 0.7% increase to 266.1 tons. Palladium demand is under significant downward pressure, with an expected 1.7% decline to 282.4 tons [4] - Supply - demand balance: In 2026, there will be a 37.9 - ton shortage in the global platinum market and a 16.9 - ton surplus in the palladium market [4] Summary and Strategy - The short - term geopolitical tension remains unresolved, and the market expects Trump's influence on the Fed to increase. The report maintains a bullish view but suggests short - term investors to wait and watch due to uncertainties and look for buying opportunities after price stabilization [5]