Orient Securities·2026-01-31 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [3][9]. Core Insights - The server CPU supply from Intel and AMD is constrained, leading to a projected price increase of 10%-15% due to surging demand from customers like CSPs. The production capacity for server CPUs is essentially sold out for the year 2026 [4]. - The price increase is driven by limited advanced process capacity and unexpectedly high downstream demand, particularly as the general server market enters a significant upgrade cycle and AI demand continues to exceed expectations [4]. - The report suggests that the current price increase for server CPUs reflects a structural shift in demand rather than a short-term fluctuation, with expectations for continued growth in both quantity and performance requirements for CPUs [4]. - Domestic CPU manufacturers are expected to benefit from this supply-demand imbalance, with companies like Haiguang Information and Loongson expected to fill the demand gap as domestic cloud service providers accelerate evaluations of domestic alternatives [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include Haiguang Information (688041, Buy), Zhongke Shuguang (603019, Buy), and others, as they are positioned to benefit from the supply constraints faced by Intel and AMD [2]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a significant shift in the AI landscape, where the demand for high single-core performance and memory bandwidth is becoming critical due to the rise of AI agents and reinforcement learning applications [4]. - The infrastructure focus is expected to shift from "GPU compute power" to "CPU scheduling," indicating a long-term trend in the industry [4].