打开专项债分配的“黑箱”

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of special new special-purpose bonds has changed the traditional allocation logic of special-purpose bonds, and the allocation logic has become more complex due to regional economic and fiscal differences and the balance between economic development and "Three Guarantees" [4][7][18]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects", but in recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors, especially debt risk factors, has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the quota allocation has been "tailored to local conditions and precisely targeted", showing regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible and difficult to fully explain with objective factors. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments for municipalities will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [9][85][88]. - Some provinces have significant deviations in the actual allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas from the theoretical values. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas due to major project construction, while some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Special-purpose Bonds as the Main Local Financing Method - The scale of special-purpose bonds has been continuously increasing. As of the end of 2025, the stock of local special-purpose bonds in China was 37 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total stock of local government bonds. The net financing of special-purpose bonds increased significantly in 2020 and 2024, and the issuance scale and stock are expected to continue to rise [19]. - Special-purpose bonds can be divided into new special-purpose bonds, refinancing special-purpose bonds, and replacement special-purpose bonds. There are also special refinancing special-purpose bonds and special new special-purpose bonds for debt resolution [21]. 3.2 Deviation between Special-purpose Bond Investment and Physical Workload - In 2024 and 2025, new special-purpose bond funds were mainly invested in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, and other fields. However, there may be a situation where "money waits for projects", and the progress of some special-purpose bond funds in forming physical workload is slow [25][30]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Factors Becoming an Important Consideration in Special-purpose Bond Allocation - The spatial distribution of special-purpose bond stocks is uneven. Since 2023, the marginal changes have reflected the policy orientation of "risk prevention". The issuance of refinancing special-purpose bonds in the western region has increased rapidly, and the proportion of debt resolution funds in key provinces is relatively high [37]. 3.4 Process and Results of New Special-purpose Bond Quota Allocation - Principles: New special-purpose bond quota allocation mainly considers five factors: financial strength, debt risk, construction demand, capital efficiency, and local applications, and is adjusted by a fluctuation coefficient. Overall, it follows the principle of "rewarding the excellent and punishing the inferior", but also pays attention to risk prevention [8][47]. - Results: There is a positive correlation between the new special-purpose bond quota and the actual in - place investment in fixed assets, but there are also some deviations. The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas can generally reflect the objective situation, but some provinces deviate from the trend, indicating that they may receive more special funds [53][57]. 3.5 Provincial Quota Allocation: From "Extensive Distribution" to "Precise Targeting" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects". In recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the allocation logic has shown regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. 3.6 Municipal Quota Allocation: From "Rewarding the Excellent and Punishing the Inferior" to "Overall Coordination" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible, and the overall explanatory power of objective factors is weaker. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [85][88]. 3.7 Deviation Calculation: Which Provinces Receive More Special-purpose Bond Funds? - Provinces such as Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, Tianjin, Gansu, and Xinjiang have a large upward deviation in the actual quota allocation from the theoretical value, while Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have a large downward deviation. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas for major project construction, and some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90].