2025年12月财政数据点评：非税高基数扰动：狭义收入回落

Revenue Insights - In December 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 21.6 trillion, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024[8] - December's public budget revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 25%, with non-tax revenue dropping by 47.9%[8] - Tax revenue also fell, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% in December, attributed to the concentrated "refund and reduction" effect at year-end[10] Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure grew by 1% in 2025, with December's year-on-year decline narrowing to 1.8% from November's 3.7%[11] - The focus remains on "ensuring key guarantees" and "improving quality and efficiency" in expenditure policies[14] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue was CNY 5.77 trillion in 2025, down 7% from 2024, with December's revenue declining by 11.7% year-on-year[21] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 11.3% in 2025, totaling CNY 11.29 trillion, driven by accelerated bond fund usage[21] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2026 is set to increase overall expenditure while optimizing structure and enhancing efficiency[23] - The Ministry of Finance aims to ensure that expenditure in key areas remains strong and that low-efficiency spending is reduced[23] Risk Considerations - There is a noted risk regarding the need to boost real estate demand, which remains a concern for future economic stability[28]