铅周报：情绪扰动较大，产业现状偏弱-20260131

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the lead industry is weak, with both smelting finished - product inventory and social inventory rising. The expectation of the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman on January 30th triggered a retreat in market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently highly volatile. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd on the sector's sentiment [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 42 to 2,004 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 167,900 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,675 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. - Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0% [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - Import and Production: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In December 2025, the domestic lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total lead concentrate production was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - Total Supply and Overseas Production: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In November 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 264,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.49% and a month - on - month change of 1.85%. From January to November, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,674,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.42% [19]. - Inventory and Processing Fees: The lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - Smelting Start - up Rate and Output: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total primary lead ingot production was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - Raw Materials and Weekly Output: At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead output was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total recycled lead ingot production was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33]. - Net Export and Total Supply: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - Battery Export: In December 2025, the net export volume of batteries containing lead was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [41]. - Inventory Days: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle segment, the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, but the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries with lithium - iron phosphate batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption due to replacement demand. In the base station segment, the rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Domestic Supply - Demand Gap: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 12,400 tons [62]. - Overseas Supply - Demand Gap: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - Domestic and Overseas Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [70][72][75]. - Position Analysis: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned net short, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [78].