12 月财政数据点评：财政支出：谁在压降，谁在扩张？

Fiscal Performance - In 2025, the general fiscal revenue was CNY 21.6 trillion, down 1.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal expenditure was CNY 28.7 trillion, up 1.0% year-on-year[6] - The cumulative general fiscal revenue for 2025 was down 2.9% compared to the budgeted growth of 0.2%, while expenditure was up 3.7%, below the budgeted 9.3%[8] - The completion rate of the first account expenditure in 2025 was the lowest since 2003 at 96.8%, with infrastructure spending significantly reduced[8] December 2025 Insights - In December 2025, general fiscal revenue fell by 19% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in central non-tax revenue, which decreased by 51%[8] - General fiscal expenditure in December 2025 saw a marginal decline of 0.4% year-on-year, but showed signs of acceleration, particularly in infrastructure and service consumption[8] - The central government’s non-tax revenue in December 2025 was notably impacted by a high base effect from 2024, where actual revenue was 327% of the budgeted amount[8] Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, focusing on growth and debt management, with major economic provinces leading the efforts[8] - The issuance of government bonds in January 2026 is projected to reach CNY 1.1 trillion, an increase of CNY 0.2 trillion year-on-year, with early initiation of new special bonds contributing to this growth[8] - The fiscal strategy aims to support economic stability and growth through increased infrastructure and service sector investments[8]