2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据点评：PMI 淡季回落，价格回升

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[9] - The production index was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points, indicating cautious expansion due to demand decline[16] - New orders and new export orders indices were 49.2% and 47.8%, respectively, both declining by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points[16] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, marking the first time in 20 months above the critical point[19] - Raw material inventory and finished goods inventory indices were 47.4% and 48.6%, respectively, indicating a decrease in raw material stock[21] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 49.5%, with significant divergence among industries[22] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal slowdowns[24] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with a focus on boosting overall demand and ensuring spending increases[27] - A risk remains in the real estate sector, where demand needs to be stimulated[28]