Changjiang Securities·2026-01-31 13:46Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger vehicles has reached 55%, and future sales growth is expected to slow down. However, the increase in battery capacity is anticipated to significantly impact demand, with a projected double-digit growth in battery demand for passenger vehicles by 2026 [2][4] - The domestic new energy passenger vehicle market has entered a consumption-driven growth phase since the end of 2020, with penetration rates increasing from around 10% to an expected 55% by the end of 2025. This growth is accompanied by a slowdown in sales growth due to a higher base [4][17] - The increase in battery capacity is expected to support the growth of battery installations, with single-vehicle battery capacity projected to rise from 52.8 kWh in April 2025 to 61.2 kWh by December 2025 for EVs, and from 23.3 kWh to 33.7 kWh for PHEVs during the same period [4][18] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The market for new energy passenger vehicles is projected to see a slight decline in total vehicle numbers, while new energy vehicles are expected to achieve small single-digit growth due to increased penetration rates. Battery capacity per vehicle is expected to increase by approximately 7%-8%, supporting a battery installation growth rate of around 12% [6][34] Policy and Economic Factors - Positive factors for battery capacity enhancement include changes in the old-for-new policy, which sets a subsidy cap at 8% of the vehicle price in 2026, and changes in purchase tax standards that require PHEVs to have a pure electric range of 100 kWh to qualify for tax exemptions [5][23] - The trend towards larger batteries in range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles is expected to continue, addressing consumer concerns about range anxiety and enhancing the perception of electric vehicles' convenience and cost-effectiveness [24] Product Development - Major manufacturers are launching new models with increased battery capacities. For instance, BYD and Geely are introducing models with capacities ranging from 20.79 kWh to 36.62 kWh for their 2026 versions [27][30] - The introduction of large-capacity EVs and PHEVs is expected to further enrich the market, with new models like the Wanjie M9 and NIO ES9 expected to have battery capacities around 100 kWh [31][33]