信用周报 20260131：债市延续修复，中长普信债表现偏强-20260131

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the yields and credit spreads of credit bonds showed a divergent trend. The credit bonds performed better than interest - rate bonds. The yields of medium - to long - term general credit bonds (3y and above) and 2 - 4y brokerage subordinated bonds declined, and the spreads narrowed. The rest of the varieties mostly saw rising yields, and the spreads, except for 1y varieties, mainly widened. The credit bond market continued to recover, and the spreads of 3 - 5y general credit bonds were further compressed due to the peak of amortized bond fund openings [1][7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the yields and credit spreads of credit bonds showed a divergent trend. The equity market was in a high - level shock. Driven by the continuation of the early - year allocation market and the innovation of central bank monetary policy tools, the yields continued to recover. Credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. The yields of 3y and above medium - to long - term general credit bonds and 2 - 4y brokerage subordinated bonds declined, and the spreads narrowed. The 3 - 4y general credit bonds, 5y urban investment bonds, and 4y brokerage subordinated bonds performed relatively well. The yields of most other varieties rose, and the spreads, except for 1y varieties, mainly widened. Currently, it is still the peak of amortized bond fund openings, and the spreads of 3 - 5y general credit bonds are further compressed [1][7]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events - On January 26, the deputy governor of the central bank stated that the supply of offshore RMB treasury bonds would be increased, which is conducive to meeting the needs of overseas investors for high - quality RMB asset allocation, activating market transactions, and enhancing RMB pricing ability [10]. - On January 27, Jilin Province successfully exited the list of key provincial - level debt regions. The relatively small debt volume in Jilin Province and its early exit from the list basically met market expectations. Attention can be paid to the regional development opportunities and the new financing space of bond - issuing entities after the exit [10]. - On January 28, Vanke announced a borrowing plan of up to 2.36 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group. The borrowing plan backed by Shenzhen Metro will provide funds for partial bond repayment, and the mitigation of Vanke's debt risk will help stabilize market expectations in the short term [11][12]. - On January 28, it was reported that many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "three red lines" - related data monthly. Only some troubled real - estate enterprises need to regularly report core financial indicators. This reflects the regulatory shift towards enterprise - specific and precise classification [12]. - On January 29, it was mentioned at the press conference on Yunnan's financial operation in 2025 that the number of bond - issuing entities in Yunnan increased steadily in 2025. Bonds are becoming an important way for enterprises to expand financing channels, which is conducive to promoting the stable and high - quality development of the regional economy [12]. 3.3 Secondary Market - The yields and credit spreads of credit bonds showed a divergent trend. For medium - and short - term notes, except for the 1 - 2y, 5y, and 10y varieties whose yields rose by 0 - 1BP, the yields of the remaining varieties declined by 0 - 4BP. In terms of spreads, except for the 2y, 5y varieties and the 3y implicit - rating AAA variety whose spreads widened by 0 - 2BP, the spreads of the remaining varieties narrowed by 0 - 4BP [15]. - For urban investment bonds, except for the 2 - 3y implicit - rating AAA variety whose yield rose by 1BP, the yields of the remaining varieties declined by 0 - 6BP. In terms of spreads, except for the 2 - 3y implicit - rating AA+ and above varieties whose spreads widened by 0 - 2BP, the spreads of the remaining varieties narrowed by 0 - 6BP. Regionally, except for the Gansu urban investment bonds whose spreads widened by 2BP, the spreads of urban investment bonds in other provinces generally narrowed by 0 - 4BP, with the credit spreads of Heilongjiang narrowing by 4BP [15]. - For real - estate bonds, the yields of the 1y implicit - rating AAA and AA varieties, 2y varieties, and 5y varieties rose by 0 - 8BP, while the yields of the remaining varieties declined by 0 - 4BP. In terms of spreads, except for the 1y implicit - rating AA+ variety, 3y implicit - rating AA+ and below varieties, 4y varieties, and 5y implicit - rating AA+ variety whose spreads narrowed by 1 - 4BP, the spreads of the remaining varieties widened by 0 - 8BP [15]. - For cyclical bonds, for coal bonds, except for the 3 - 4y varieties whose yields declined by 0 - 4BP, the yields of the remaining varieties rose by 0 - 1BP. In terms of spreads, except for the 2y, 5y varieties and the 3y implicit - rating AAA variety whose spreads widened by 0 - 2BP, the credit spreads of the remaining varieties narrowed by 0 - 3BP. For steel bonds, the yields of the 1y implicit - rating AAA - variety, 2y varieties, and 5y implicit - rating AA variety rose by 0 - 1BP, while the yields of the remaining varieties declined by 0 - 5BP. In terms of spreads, except for the 2y varieties, 3y implicit - rating AAA - variety, and 5y implicit - rating AA variety whose spreads widened by 1 - 2BP, the spreads of the remaining varieties narrowed by 0 - 4BP [16]. - For financial bonds, for bank secondary bonds, except for the 5y varieties whose yields declined by 0 - 2BP, the yields of the remaining varieties rose by 0 - 3BP. In terms of spreads, for bank secondary capital bonds, except for the 1y, 5y varieties whose spreads narrowed by 0 - 2BP, the credit spreads of the remaining varieties widened by 1 - 4BP. The yields of bank perpetual bonds rose by 0 - 2BP, and the credit spreads widened by 0 - 1BP. The yields of 2 - 4y brokerage subordinated bonds declined by 1 - 4BP, while the yields of the remaining varieties rose by 1 - 2BP. In terms of spreads, the spreads of 2 - 4y varieties narrowed by 0 - 4BP, while the spreads of the remaining varieties widened by 1 - 2BP. The yields of 1y varieties and 4y implicit - rating AA+ variety of insurance subordinated bonds declined by 1BP, while the yields of the remaining varieties rose by 0 - 2BP. In terms of spreads, the spreads of 1y varieties and 4 - 5y implicit - rating AA+ variety narrowed by 1BP, while the spreads of the remaining varieties widened by 0 - 3BP [17]. 3.4 Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 307.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.4 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was 155.7 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8 billion yuan compared with the previous week. Specifically, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 110.5 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was 48.3 billion yuan, an increase of 54.4 billion yuan compared with the previous week. In terms of varieties, the net financing amounts of short - term commercial paper and corporate bonds increased to 63 billion yuan and 62.1 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous week; the net financing amounts of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds decreased to 31.5 billion yuan and - 6.8 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of ratings, the issuance proportion of AAA varieties decreased to 69.66%, while the issuance proportions of AA+ and AA varieties increased to 23.60% and 6.74% respectively. In terms of terms, the issuance proportions of 1 - 3y, 3 - 5y, and 5y varieties decreased to 4.19%, 21.44%, and 25.70% respectively, while the issuance proportions of varieties within 1y and over 5y increased to 37.84% and 10.83% respectively. In terms of enterprise nature, the issuance proportions of central state - owned enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, and private enterprises increased to 34.20%, 61.21%, and 2.80% respectively, while the issuance proportion of other enterprises decreased to 1.79%. In terms of industries, the industries with large issuance scales this week were urban investment, public utilities, and comprehensive industries. In terms of cancelled issuances, a total of 2 credit bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance this week, involving a scale of 700 million yuan, a decrease of 200 million yuan compared with the previous week [42]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market for credit bonds decreased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market decreased from 601.6 billion yuan last week to 544.4 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market decreased from 391.1 billion yuan last week to 338.2 billion yuan [59]. 3.6 Rating Adjustments - This week, the ratings of 7 entities were upgraded. Among them, Shandong Shouguang Jinxin Investment Development Holding Group Co., Ltd., Nanjing Liuhe New City Construction (Group) Co., Ltd., and Shaoxing Shangyu Water Group Co., Ltd. are urban investment entities [61].