蛋白粕周报：基本面边际好转-20260131

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal price rebounded due to sudden news from Canada. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production estimates for the US and Brazil were slightly revised upwards month - on - month, and the US export volume was slightly reduced. However, the overall balance sheet situation was still better than that of the 2024/25 season. Based on weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: From January 15th to January 22nd, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 33.85 million tons for the current year; 230,000 tons were exported to China during the week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.65 million tons. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said he had no plans to sign any trade agreements with China after Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff. From January 16th to January 23rd, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The stock - to - use ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, the January forecast for US exports was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared to the December forecast [10]. - Viewpoints: The rapeseed meal price rebounded due to Canadian news. The January USDA report was slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet was better than in 2024/25. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week. Short - term fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - Spot Prices: The report presents the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [19][20]. - Basis of Main Contracts: It shows the basis trends of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract from 2022 to 2026 [22][23]. - Inter - month Spreads: The report displays the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [25][26]. - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: It presents the 5 - month and 9 - month spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [28][29]. 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: It includes the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [34][35][37]. - Weather Conditions: It compares the precipitation of Brazilian and US soybeans with the same period of previous years, and provides precipitation data and temperature deviation data for different regions in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [40][41][42]. - US Soybean Export Progress: It shows the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the export volume to China in the current and next market years, and the monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 [48][49][51]. - Chinese Oil Mill Crushing Situation: It presents the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [57][58]. - Brazilian Soybean Export Situation: It shows the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, the export volume to China, the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China from 2021 to 2025 [60][61][63]. - Argentine Soybean Shipping to China: It shows the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [66][67]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: It shows the port inventory of soybeans and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [71][72]. - Protein Meal Inventory: It presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [74][75]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: It shows the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [77][78]. 3.5 Demand Side - Soybean Meal Transaction and Consumption: It shows the cumulative sales volume and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [81]. - Breeding Profit: It presents the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [83][84].