棉花周报：关注低吸的机会-20260131

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of planting area in the new season and the positive future macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: As of January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast of global cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous season. The January forecast of US production was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons; India's production decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.7722 million tons, a 194,900 - ton decrease year - on - year; of which, exports to China were 8,800 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 97,400 tons, a 66,000 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a 40,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [9] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis was 1,485 yuan/ton with a +0.5 long - short score and a strengthening basis; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 140 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the spinning immediate profit was - 1,623 yuan/ton with a +0 score and a profit decrease; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 376 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the FC index M 1% was 12,485 yuan/ton and the FC index M sliding - duty was 13,664 yuan/ton, with a - 0.5 score and a relatively high domestic premium. The summary was to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying [10] - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For the unilateral strategy, the operation suggestion was to buy on dips, with the core driving logic being the reduction of planting area in the new season and good macro - expectations [11] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: Figures showed the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - Import Profit: Figures presented the 1% tariff and sliding - duty price differences between domestic and foreign cotton [29] - Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread: Figures showed the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [31] - Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit: Figures displayed the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit [33] - Foreign Market Spread: Figures showed the spreads between different US cotton contracts and the price differences between US and Brazilian cotton and other indices [35][37] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production: Figures showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [41] - Cotton Import Volume: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [43] - US Export Contract Quantity to China: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [46] - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [48] - Downstream Operating Rate: Figures showed the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [51] - National Sales Progress: Figures presented the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [54] - Cotton Inventory: Figures showed the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial and industrial sectors [56] - Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory: Figures presented the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [58] 3.4. International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: Figures showed the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - quality rate [62] - US Production Situation: Figures presented the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton, as well as the production estimate and planting area [64][65] - US Export Contract Progress: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [67] - US Export Shipment Volume: Figures presented the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [69] - US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: Figures showed the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [70] - Brazilian Production and Planting Area: Figures presented the planting area and production of Brazilian cotton [72] - Brazilian Export Volume: Figures showed the export volume estimate and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio [74][75] - Indian Production and Planting Area: Figures presented the planting area and production of Indian cotton [77] - Indian Consumption and Import - Export: Figures showed the consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][80]