聚酯周报：原油大幅走强，原料估值压缩-20260131

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market is currently experiencing a callback in PXN due to a lack of fundamental driving forces and the suppression of the off - season. Although the current load is high and downstream PTA is in the maintenance season with high inventory, the supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil in the medium term [11]. - The PTA market shows that the processing fee has remained at a high level, but the market is still weak due to the compression of PXN. In the short term, high maintenance on the supply side and the decline in polyester load on the demand side lead to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of a processing fee callback in the short term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [12]. - The MEG market has a high overall load, and the inventory accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high operation. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and it may need to be compressed in the medium term without further domestic production cuts [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - Price Performance: The 03 contract fell 226 yuan last week to 7282 yuan, while the CFR China spot price rose 14 dollars to 921 dollars, and the spot conversion basis rose 119 yuan to 50 yuan as of January 30. The 3 - 5 spread remained flat at - 118 yuan [11]. - Supply: The domestic load was 89.2%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian load was 81.6%, a 0.6% increase. There are still few domestic maintenance plans, and overseas device loads are expected to rise further. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 tons year - on - year [11]. - Demand: The PTA load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged. The expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January, and the overall load is still low [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a 6 - ton increase. It is expected to continue to accumulate in January and February due to high PTA maintenance and high PX operation [11]. - Valuation and Cost: As of January 29, PXN was 325 dollars, a 15 - dollar decrease year - on - year; the naphtha crack spread decreased by 15 dollars to 85 dollars. The relative value of aromatics blending into gasoline is weak [11]. - Summary: The PX market is affected by the off - season, and the cost of crude oil has compressed the chemical valuation. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season, but the supply - demand structure is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are opportunities to follow the trend of crude oil for long - position operations in the medium term [11]. PTA - Price Performance: The 05 contract fell 178 yuan last week to 5270 yuan, the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 5245 yuan, the spot basis rose 2 yuan to - 76 yuan as of January 30, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 52 yuan to - 12 yuan [12]. - Supply: The PTA load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged, and the expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January, with a low overall load [12]. - Demand: The polyester load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Polyester fiber is affected by the off - season, and the bottle - chip load has decreased earlier than expected. Terminal orders have decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Inventory: As of January 23, the overall PTA social inventory was 208.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase, and it has entered the inventory accumulation stage [12]. - Profit: The spot processing fee rose 33 yuan to 386 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee rose 41 yuan to 491 yuan/ton [12]. - Summary: The PTA processing fee is at a high level, but the market is weak. In the short term, there is a risk of a processing fee callback, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [12]. MEG - Price Performance: The 05 contract fell 84 yuan last week to 3913 yuan, the East China spot price rose 169 yuan to 3829 yuan, the basis rose 6 yuan to - 112 yuan as of January 30, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 22 yuan to - 105 yuan [13]. - Supply: The EG load was 74.4%, a 1.4% increase. Overseas load is low, but domestic production cuts are insufficient. The expected arrival volume last week was 14.7 tons, a 5.8 - ton decrease [13]. - Demand: The polyester load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Polyester fiber is affected by the off - season, and the bottle - chip load has decreased earlier than expected. Terminal orders have decreased, and inventory has increased [13]. - Inventory: As of January 26, the port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase, and the downstream factory inventory days increased by 0.2 days to 14.8 days. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in January and February [13]. - Valuation and Cost: The naphtha - based profit remained at - 1024 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit rose 229 yuan to - 543 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit rose 357 yuan to 352 yuan/ton. The current overall valuation is moderately low [13]. - Summary: The MEG market has a high load and continuous inventory accumulation. There is an expectation of profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market PX - Basis and Spread: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread declined [31]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [35][37]. PTA - Basis and Spread: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread decreased [39]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [45][48]. MEG - Basis and Spread: The basis and monthly spread trends are presented in relevant charts [53]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [60][61]. Overseas Commodity Prices - Charts show the overseas price trends of PX, MEG, and PTA [64]. 3.3. p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - New Capacity: Domestic new capacities include the 30 - ton technical transformation of Fujia Dahua in early 2026, the 200 - ton project of Huajin Aramco in Q3 2026, and the 300 - ton project of Yantai Yulongdao from late 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 80 tons in H2 2026 [67]. - Supply: The load remained stable, with the domestic load at 89.2% and the Asian load at 81.6% [11]. - Import: The import volume increased significantly in December [73]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory accumulation in November [76]. - Cost and Profit: PXN declined, the short - process price difference was high, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [79]. - Aromatics Blending into Gasoline: Gasoline performance was weak, and the relative value of blending was low [86]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - New Capacity: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 added new capacities. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will also add capacities [119]. - Supply: The load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged, and the expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January [12]. - Export: Relevant charts show the trends of PTA exports to different regions [124]. - Inventory: Inventory has started to accumulate [126]. - Profit and Valuation: The processing fee has increased significantly [129]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - New Capacity: In 2025, Zhengdaikai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) added new capacities. In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will also add capacities [133]. - Supply: The load was 74.4%, a 1.4% increase, with insufficient domestic production cuts [13]. - Import: The import volume increased significantly in December [137]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly this week (with a change in the statistical caliber) [147]. - Cost: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices fell [157]. - Profit: The profit is moderately low [160]. 3.6. Polyester and End - Users Polyester - New Capacity: There will be many new capacity projects in the first half of 2026, mainly in polyester filament, staple fiber, bottle - chip, and slice [177]. - Supply: The operating rate decreased seasonally [179]. - Export: The export data in December increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [185]. - Inventory: The inventory of polyester filament is at a low level [188]. - Sales Rate: Relevant charts show the sales rate trends of filament, staple fiber, and slice [195]. - Profit: The profit of polyester filament has improved [198]. End - Users - Operating Rate: The operating rate decreased, with a relatively slow year - on - year decline [201]. - Order and Inventory: Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw material inventory increased [205]. - Textile and Apparel and Soft Drinks: The domestic demand growth rate of textile and apparel has recovered, but exports are weak [210]. - US Apparel Inventory: The wholesale inventory is lower than the pre - pandemic high [212].