聚烯烃周报：投产错配叠加季节性，逢低做多PP5-9价差-20260131

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, leading to a rebound in international oil prices. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side of PE has new capacity coming online and a large import volume, so its short - term rebound strength is weaker than that of PP. There is an expectation of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the PP2605 contract has no new capacity pressure. The relief of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [17][18]. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6900 - 7200); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6800 - 7100). The recommended strategy is to go long on PP2605 - PP2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and international oil prices rebounded. In terms of valuation, both polyethylene and polypropylene had weekly declines (futures > spot > cost). On the cost side, last week, WTI crude oil rose 4.27%, Brent crude oil rose 4.84%, coal prices rose 0.58%, methanol rose 2.44%, ethylene rose 5.95%, propylene rose 3.64%, and propane rose 0.82%. The cost side rebounded [15]. - Supply Side: PE capacity utilization rate was 81.56%, a week - on - week decrease of - 2.19%, a year - on - year decrease of - 4.13%, and a decrease of - 9.64% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate was 76.61%, a week - on - week increase of 3.74%, a year - on - year decrease of - 2.56%, and a decrease of - 10.55% compared to the five - year average. New PE capacity was put into production, and the PP supply side faced greater pressure [15]. - Imports and Exports: In December, the domestic PE import volume was 1.0622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 9.99%. The domestic PP import volume was 179,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.97% and a year - on - year decrease of - 8.74%. Import profits declined, the supply of PE from North America decreased, and the pressure on the import side lessened. In December, the PE export volume was 85,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 38.74%. The PP export volume was 224,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 36.59%. The continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate put pressure on the import side [15]. - Demand Side: The downstream operating rate of PE was 41.10%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 104.58%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 52.58%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. The seasonal off - season has arrived, and there are no bright spots in the downstream operating rates of polyolefins [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of PE production enterprises was 350,300 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 11.41% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 7.72%; the inventory of PE traders was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 0.14%. The inventory of PP production enterprises was 431,000 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 7.85% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 8.16%; the inventory of PP traders was 193,900 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 5.28%; the PP port inventory was 70,600 tons, a week - on - week destocking of - 0.70%. Coal - based enterprises significantly reduced their inventories [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the term structure, main contract prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc. These figures show the historical price trends and trading volume changes of the above - mentioned indicators from 2022 to 2026 [30][45][62]. 3.3 Cost Side - The oil - based cost stopped falling and rebounded. Multiple figures show the price trends of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., from 2022 to 2026, as well as the production and supply - demand situations of LPG, including its production, import, consumption, and profit margins in different industries [76]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - Raw Material Proportion: The proportion of raw materials for PE production is mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon - based (12.00%), coal - based (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [135]. - Production Plan: In 2026, there are many domestic PE production projects planned, with a total of 5.2 million tons of un - commissioned capacity, including projects from Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase III, Huajin Aramco Fine Chemicals Project, etc. [140]. - Capacity Utilization and Output: Figures show the capacity, capacity utilization, maintenance loss, and output of PE and LLDPE from 2022 to 2026 [139][142][147]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Inventory: The report presents various inventory data of PE, including the inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil enterprise inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, and trader inventory, and shows their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [159][163][164]. - Imports/Exports: It shows the import sources, import volume, and import profit of LLDPE, and the trends of PE import volume from 2021 to 2025 [165][167]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Proportion: The downstream demand for LLDPE is mainly for packaging films (51.00%), followed by hollow products (12.31%), pipes (11.65%), injection molding (10.00%), agricultural films (7.03%), drawing (4.51%), and wires and cables (3.50%) [172]. - Operating Rate and Inventory: The report shows the downstream operating rate, packaging film available days, agricultural film order days, raw material inventory, and finished - product inventory of PE, and their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [181][185][187]. 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - Raw Material Proportion: The proportion of raw materials for PP production is mainly oil - based (53.00%), followed by PDH - based (25.00%), coal - based (18.00%), methanol - based (2.00%), and purchased propylene (2.00%) [193]. - Production Plan: In 2026, there are many domestic PP production projects planned, with a total of 4.37 million tons of un - commissioned capacity, including projects from Beifang Huajin, PetroChina Tarim, etc. [200]. - Capacity Utilization and Output: Figures show the capacity, capacity utilization, maintenance loss, and output of PP from 2022 to 2026 [199][201][203]. 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Inventory: The report presents various inventory data of PP, including the inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, PDH - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory, and shows their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [210][213][217]. - Imports/Exports: It shows the import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP, and the trends of import and export volume from 2021 to 2025 [224][227]. 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Proportion: The downstream demand for PP is mainly for drawing (34.00%), followed by high - and low - melt copolymers (24.00%), injection molding (17.00%), BOPP (6.00%), high - melt fibers (6.00%), transparent materials (5.00%), pipes (hot and cold water) (5.00%), and CPP (3.00%) [232]. - Operating Rate and Inventory: The report shows the downstream operating rate, raw material inventory, and finished - product inventory of PP, and their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [241][250][253].