铝周报：市场波动剧烈，铝价大幅冲高回落-20260131

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices experienced a significant surge followed by a decline due to geopolitical situations and the sharp fluctuations in precious metal prices. Currently, the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continues to accumulate. High prices combined with the off - season for demand result in weak downstream demand, but this does not constitute a major negative factor for prices. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum spot provides strong support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 24,000 - 25,200 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is 3,050 - 3,220 US dollars/ton [11][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.996 million tons. In January, the electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will remain relatively stable in February, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In January 2026, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [11]. - Inventory & Spot: According to MYSTEEL data, the aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The total aluminum rod inventory was 253,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The LME global aluminum inventory was 494,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week. The spot basis of domestic East China aluminum ingots weakened, and the LME market Cash/3M discount widened [11]. - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Recently, the loss of Shanghai aluminum spot imports has narrowed [11]. - Demand: According to SMM research, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing this week decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% compared to last week. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum profiles declined significantly, while the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, foils, rods, and alloys decreased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum cables remained flat. Before the Spring Festival, the demand for photovoltaic frames was strong, while other profile enterprises gradually took long holidays. Coupled with the relatively high aluminum prices, the downstream提货 willingness was general [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Aluminum prices experienced a significant surge followed by a decline. Shanghai aluminum rose 1.1% to 24,560 yuan/ton this week (as of the Friday afternoon close), while LME aluminum fell 1.2% to 3,135 US dollars/ton [23]. - Term Spread: After the aluminum price surge and decline, the near - month contract was relatively resistant to the decline, and the contango between the first - and third - month contracts narrowed [26]. - Spot Basis: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China widened compared to last week [29]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: The East China spot was relatively strong [34]. - LME Premium and Discount: The LME aluminum Cash/3M discount widened [37]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased compared to last week and was at a historical high [44]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: According to MYSTEEL data, the aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons compared to last Thursday. According to SMM statistics, the bonded area inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The total aluminum rod inventory was 253,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The LME global aluminum inventory was 494,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared to last week, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [49][52][55][58]. 3.4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: Domestic bauxite prices fluctuated and declined, while overseas bauxite prices remained stable month - on - month [61]. - Alumina Price: Domestic alumina prices continued to decline, while import prices stabilized [66]. 3.5. Supply Side - Alumina: In January 2026, the monthly alumina output decreased by 1.8% month - on - month compared to December 2025 and 2.6% year - on - year compared to January 2025. Routine maintenance at the beginning of the year caused a slight contraction in operating capacity. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to decline in February [76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.996 million tons. In January, the electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will remain relatively stable in February, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In December 2025, the overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 258,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, with an annual output increase of approximately 2.8% [79]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: This week, the aluminum rod processing fee first increased and then decreased. In January 2026, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume increased by 19.4% month - on - month and decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In the context of the off - season for downstream demand in February, the aluminum water ratio is expected to decrease by 7.7%. This week, the decline in the aluminum water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises slightly widened [82]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased month - on - month compared to November [87]. 3.6. Demand Side - Aluminum Product Output: In December 2025, China's aluminum product output was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The cumulative output from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. As of January 26, 2026, the daily aluminum ingot出库 volume was 133,000 tons, an increase compared to last week [91]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In December 2025, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased month - on - month. The operating rates of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 329 yuan/ton to 1,145 yuan/ton [97][100][103]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in February 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 1.149 million units, a 31.6% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 600,000 units, a 17% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 630,000 units, a 3.2% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year. In December 2025, the real estate data continued to be weak, the production and sales of automobiles weakened marginally, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules was strong [106]. 3.7. Import and Export - Primary Aluminum Import: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. This week, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports narrowed. In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., and the import volume from Russia increased to 76% [111][115]. - Aluminum Product Export: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [118]. - Recycled Aluminum Import: In December 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [118]. - Bauxite Import: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with an import ore proportion of 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% [121]. - Alumina Export: In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [121].