双焦周报：商品市场情绪短期受到压制，双焦盘面预计继续呈现震荡走势-20260131

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise, the expectation of short - term marginal tightening brought by the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of multiple US federal government departments may suppress the overall market atmosphere. - The weekly static supply - demand structure of coking coal has become marginally looser due to the gradual recovery of supply after the New Year's Day, the high - level customs clearance of Mongolian coal, and the slow resumption of hot metal production. Coke also shows a relatively loose situation. Although downstream enterprises are still replenishing inventory, the coking plant's coking coal inventory is approaching last year's level, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is significantly low. Therefore, the short - term inventory replenishment is unlikely to drive prices strongly, and the upward momentum of prices is relatively weak. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to show a volatile trend in the short term, and the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high - volatility risk are also noted [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review - Last week, the coking coal futures price continued a wide - range volatile trend, with a weekly increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or + 0.04% (for the weighted index). The sharp fluctuations in the commodity market, especially the high - level diving of precious metals and the significant decline of lithium carbonate, suppressed the overall commodity sentiment. However, the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate sector and the successful extension of Vanke's debt issue provided short - term emotional support for the black sector. Technically, the coking coal futures are still in a daily - level rebound cycle, with support around 1100 yuan/ton and resistance around 1260 yuan/ton [14]. - The coke futures price also continued a wide - range volatile trend, with a weekly decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 0.03% (for the weighted index). Technically, the coke price is approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021. If it breaks through upwards, the resistance around 1850 yuan/ton will be focused on, and the support around 1650 - 1700 yuan/ton will be monitored in the short term [17]. - Weekly Key Points Summary - Spot Prices and Basis: For coking coal, the prices of different coal types showed different trends, and most of them had a certain degree of premium over the futures. For coke, the prices of different regions also changed, with some having a premium and some having a discount to the futures [18]. - Variety Positions: The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the non - main contracts in March and April have significantly higher positions than the same period, which requires attention to the warehouse receipt pressure after price increases [18]. - Domestic Production: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.07 tons, with a slight increase of 0.06 tons. The cumulative output of clean coal in the sample mines increased by about 1.55 million tons or 4.47% year - on - year [18]. - Overseas Imports: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port has rebounded to 209,200 tons per day, at an absolute high level in the same period. The estimated import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 189 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [18]. - Demand: The total daily average output of coke from 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased slightly to 109,850 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 227,980 tons, and the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased, and the steel inventory increased slightly compared with the previous week but was lower than the same period last year [18]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal in the country is 1.5342 million tons, with a slight increase. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke production and hot metal decreased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke has become marginally looser this week [19]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased by 580,300 tons, with the inventory of sample mines decreasing, and the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increasing. The total coke inventory increased by 215,000 tons, with the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increasing [19]. - Summary and Outlook: In the short term, the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the high - volatility risk [19]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Coking Coal Spot Prices: As of January 30, 2026, the prices of different coking coal types showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing. The spot prices of different coal types were converted into warehouse receipt prices, and most of them had a premium over the futures [23][25][28][31]. - Coke Spot Prices: The price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang remained stable. The coke price at Rizhao Port had a premium over the futures, while the coke price in Lvliang had a discount [34]. - Coking Coal Basis and Calendar Spread: The basis of Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal had different changes. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 77 yuan/ton, and the coking coal generally maintained a Contango structure [41][44]. - Coke Basis and Calendar Spread: The basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke had different changes. The 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 65.5 yuan/ton, and the coke also maintained a Contango structure [47][50]. 3.3. Positions and Variety Ratios - Variety Positions: As of January 30, 2026, the total long - short position of coking coal was 590,500 lots, a decrease of 46,100 lots compared with the previous week. The long - short position of coke was 38,700 lots, a decrease of 1,100 lots. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the non - main contracts in March and April have significantly higher positions than the same period, which requires attention to the warehouse receipt pressure after price increases [59][62]. - Variety Ratios: This week, the ratio of JM/I increased by 0.01, and the ratio of HC/JM decreased by 0.01. Coking coal performed slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coils, but the difference was limited. The ratio of J/I increased by 0.01, and the ratio of HC/J decreased by 0.01. Coke was slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coils. Currently, both JM/I and J/I are at relatively low levels in history, indicating that the valuations of coking coal and coke are relatively low compared with iron ore [67][70]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - Domestic Coking Coal Production: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.07 tons, with a slight increase of 0.06 tons. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 26,770 tons, a decrease of 860 tons. The cumulative output of clean coal in the sample mines and coal washing plants increased year - on - year [75][77]. - Imported Coking Coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port has rebounded to 209,200 tons per day, at an absolute high level in the same period. The estimated import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 189 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, the cumulative imports of coking coal from different countries showed different trends, with an increase in imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Canada, and a decrease in imports from Australia and the United States [80][83][86][89]. - Coke Production: The total daily average output of coke from 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased slightly to 109,850 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel enterprises increased slightly, while the daily average output of coke from independent coking plants decreased [92][95]. - Downstream Steel Industry: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 227,980 tons, a decrease of 120 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3%. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased, and the steel inventory increased slightly compared with the previous week but was lower than the same period last year [98][104][108]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal in the country is 1.5342 million tons, with a slight increase. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke production and hot metal decreased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke has become marginally looser this week [110]. 3.5. Inventory - Inventory Overview: As of January 30, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 580,300 tons, with the inventory of sample mines decreasing, and the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increasing. The total coke inventory increased by 215,000 tons, with the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increasing [115]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The coking coal inventories of different sectors (sample mines, steel mills, coking plants, and ports) showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [115]. - Coke Inventory: The coke inventories of different sectors (independent coking plants, steel mills, and ports) also showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [115].