工业硅&多晶硅周报 2026/01/31：工业硅关注大厂停炉兑现；多晶硅现货价格松动，承压运行-20260131

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side shows a downward trend in weekly production as Sichuan enterprises maintain furnace shutdown and Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia enterprises reduce production. The demand side is weak with a leading polysilicon enterprise shutting down and some other enterprises reducing production, and the organic silicon weekly production also shows a downward trend. In February, if the production - reduction plan of a large Xinjiang factory is implemented, the balance sheet of industrial silicon is expected to improve, but the price is expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival and weakening downstream demand. [16] - For polysilicon, the spot price is under pressure with intense price - game in the market. A leading enterprise has shut down and some other enterprises have reduced production, so the supply is expected to contract in the first quarter. The policy is expected to support the price, but the futures market is expected to be under pressure due to the loosening of the spot price. [18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Zhou度评估及策略推荐 - Demand: The weekly production of polysilicon is 19,200 tons, showing a continuous downward trend. The DMC production is 42,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared to the previous week. From January to December, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy is 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to December is 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94%. [14] - Inventory: As of January 30, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory is 509,100 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the factory inventory is 250,400 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons; the market inventory is 189,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 69,700 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons. [14] - Price: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in the East China region is 9,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closes at 8,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) has a premium of 350 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 3.80%; the 421 is at par with the main contract. [15] - Cost: According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8,487.50 yuan/ton, 9,718.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,960.00 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. [15] - Supply: The weekly production of industrial silicon is 73,600 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to the previous week. [15] 3.2 期现市场 - Industrial Silicon: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in the East China region is 9,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closes at 8,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) has a premium of 350 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 3.80%; the 421 is at par with the main contract. [23] - Polysilicon: As of January 30, 2026, the average price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon is 51.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.7 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material is 50.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.75 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closes at 47,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,580 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract is 4,160 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 8.11%. [26] 3.3 工业硅 - Total Production: As of January 30, 2026, the weekly production of industrial silicon is 73,600 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to the previous week. In December 2025, the production of industrial silicon is 355,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons compared to the previous month. From January to December, the cumulative production is 652,300 tons less than the previous year, a decrease of 13.86%. [31] - Main Production Areas: The production in main areas such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu is presented through historical data charts, but no specific new data for the current period are provided other than the overall weekly production. [33][35][38] - Production Cost: As of January 30, 2026, the electricity price in main production areas remains unchanged, and the silicon stone price also remains stable. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8,487.50 yuan/ton, 9,718.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,960.00 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. [43][46] - Explicit Inventory: As of January 30, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory is 509,100 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the factory inventory is 250,400 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons; the market inventory is 189,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 69,700 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons. [49] 3.4 多晶硅 - Production: As of January 30, 2026, the weekly production of polysilicon is 19,200 tons, showing a continuous downward trend. The production in January is 100,800 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons compared to the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 67,800 tons. [54] - Capacity Utilization and Scheduling: The capacity utilization rate of polysilicon in December is 42.23%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points compared to the previous month. It is expected that the production in February will be 79,700 tons, continuing to decline. [57] - Inventory: As of January 30, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon is 332,100 tons, and the inventory according to SMM is 333,000 tons. [60] - Cost and Profit: As of January 30, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon is 44,102.42 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 6,766.00 yuan/ton, with the profit showing a downward trend. [63] - Silicon Wafer: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 11.75GW, showing a slight increase. The production in January is 45.93GW, an increase of 2.03GW compared to the previous month, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15%. The inventory of silicon wafers is 27.29GW, showing an upward trend. It is predicted that the production in February will be 45.31GW, remaining basically unchanged. [66][69] - Battery Cell: The production of battery cells in December is 46.76GW, a decrease of 8.85GW compared to the previous month. The cumulative production from January to December is 669.48GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%. The inventory of battery cells is 8.92GW, showing an increase. It is expected that the production in January will be 39.36GW, a significant decrease compared to the previous month. [75][78] - Module: The production of modules in January is 35.2GW, a decrease of 3.5GW compared to the previous month, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. The capacity utilization rate in January is 34.17%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points. The inventory of modules is 26.1GW, showing a downward trend. It is expected that the production in February will be 29.8GW, continuing to decline. [83][86] 3.5 有机硅 - Production: As of January 30, 2026, the DMC production is 42,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared to the previous week. The production in December is 204,800 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative production from January to December is 2.477 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93%. [93] - Price and Profit: As of January 30, 2026, the average price of organic silicon is 13,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The gross profit of DMC is 1,859.38 yuan/ton. [96] - Inventory: As of January 30, 2026, the DMC inventory is 40,500 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to the previous week. [99] 3.6 硅铝合金及出口 - Aluminum Alloy: As of January 30, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 24,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 24,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 230 yuan/ton. From January to December, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy is 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy is 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy is 58.9%. [104][107] - Export: From January to December, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94%. [110]