甲醇周报：逢高止盈-20260131

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week's view: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has brought about certain geopolitical expectations, so there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [16]. - This week's view: The current methanol price has almost fully priced in the geopolitical premium. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may persist, which will put pressure on the upside [16]. Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Assessment - Market Trend: A chart of the methanol index from 2025 - 01 - 01 to 2026 - 01 - 28 is presented [13][14]. - Factor Assessment & Strategy - Supply: Overseas methanol production starts to slow seasonally, while domestic production remains at a high level. The previous high - volume overseas shipments are arriving slowly, and the current overseas shipments are decreasing seasonally, with a neutral outlook [16]. - Demand: The operating rates of MTO, olefins, and formaldehyde remain relatively high. The MTO valuation is low but lacks obvious driving factors. Downstream industries are hesitant about the current methanol price, limiting the price increase. Geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to cause an extreme supply - demand gap, with a neutral outlook [16]. - Inventory: The high - level destocking at ports has slowed down, and inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the marginal increase is small. Factory inventories remain stable, with a slightly bearish outlook [16]. - Cost: The replenishment of thermal coal inventories has fallen short of expectations, and prices have started to decline from high levels. Oil and gas prices are weakly oscillating with limited expected fluctuations, with a neutral outlook [16]. 02 - Spot and Futures Market - Basis and Spreads: Charts of the methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol prices, methanol 01 basis, and methanol 1 - 5 spreads are provided [19][22][24]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Charts of methanol 01 contract's open interest, trading volume, total open interest, and total trading volume are presented [29][32]. 03 - Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and thermal coal prices (Ordos Q5500 and Qinhuangdao Port Q5500) are provided [43][45]. - Production Profit: Charts of coal - based and gas - based methanol production profits in Inner Mongolia, Southwest China, and Shandong are presented [48][49]. - Port Inventory: Charts of port inventories, East China port inventories, South China port inventories, and methanol social inventories are provided [52][54][56]. - Regional Inventory: Charts of factory inventories, Northwest factory inventories, East China regional inventories, and Ningbo port inventories are presented [61][62][63]. 04 - Supply Side - Shipment Monitoring: Charts of global methanol shipments, arrivals, Middle East shipments, and Asia - Pacific arrivals are provided [70]. - Upstream Production and Operating Rates: Charts of domestic methanol operating rates, weekly methanol production, and overseas methanol operating rates are presented [76][74]. - Import Volume: Charts of import volumes, Iranian imports, Omani imports, and Saudi imports are provided [78][81]. - Arrival Volume: Charts of methanol arrivals in East China, South China, and China are provided [86][88]. - International Price Spreads: Charts of import profits, China - Southeast Asia spreads, China - US Gulf spreads, and China - Europe spreads are presented [94]. - Regional Price Spreads: The regional price spread shows that ports are weak while the inland is strong. Charts of East China - Inner Mongolia spreads, East China - Southern Shandong spreads, Southern Shandong - Northwest spreads, and South China - East China spreads are provided [96][97][99]. - Domestic Freight: Charts of methanol freight rates from Dalate Banner to Dongying, Yulin to Dongying, and Luoyang to Changzhou are provided [106]. 05 - Demand Side - Methanol - to - Olefins - Operating Rates: Charts of olefin operating rates and Jiangsu - Zhejiang MTO operating rates are provided [114]. - Profits: Charts of Fude and Xingxing's profits are presented [112]. - PP Production Profits: Charts of oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based PP production profits are provided [119]. - MTO - Related Spreads: Charts of PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, EG - 2MA, and MA - 2ZC spreads are provided [121][125]. - Traditional Downstream - 1,4 - Butanediol: A chart of 1,4 - butanediol capacity utilization rate is provided [130]. - Acetic Acid: Charts of acetic acid operating rates and profits are provided [136]. - Formaldehyde and Dimethyl Ether: Charts of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether operating rates and profits are provided [140][144]. - MTBE: Charts of MTBE operating rates and profits are provided [147][151]. - Downstream Inventory: A chart of methanol raw material inventory of downstream manufacturers in China is provided [153]. - Related Product Ratios: Charts of methanol - urea, methanol/INE crude oil, methanol/thermal coal, and MA/EG ratios are provided [157]. 06 - Options - Related - Methanol Options: Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [161]. 07 - Industry Structure Diagram - Methanol Industry Chain: A chart of the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis are provided [165][167].