碳酸锂周报：情绪回落，止盈盘离场-20260131

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment for going long cooled down, the number of profit - taking orders increased significantly, and lithium prices declined at an accelerated pace. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% this week, reaching a new low since late October. The expectation of fundamental improvement in lithium carbonate remains unchanged. Recently, upstream maintenance and increased demand for battery exports have led to continued destocking of domestic lithium carbonate. However, the sustainability of supply - side contraction in the future is uncertain, and concerns about the negative feedback caused by rising terminal costs are increasing, so there is significant pressure on the upside of lithium prices. Against the background of low downstream inventories, the bargaining power for pre - holiday raw material procurement is low. After the release of price risks, there may be support at the short - term bottom. Given the large fluctuations in the commodity market recently, and the exchange adhering to the principle of strict supervision, it is recommended to observe cautiously or try with a light position [12] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Highlights - Futures and Spot Market: On January 30, the evening quotation of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 155,107 yuan, a weekly decrease of 5.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,450 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 148,200 yuan, a weekly decrease of 18.36% [12] - Supply: Lithium salt plants arranged maintenance in the off - season. On January 29, SMM reported the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate at 21,569 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. The estimated domestic lithium carbonate output in January 2026 was 97,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 56.7% [12] - Demand: The Passenger Car Association estimated that the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles in January would be around 800,000, with a penetration rate of about 44.4%. The first quarter is a critical window period for "grabbing exports" of batteries. The off - season demand is expected to increase, and the decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [12] - Inventory: On January 29, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 107,482 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,414 tons (- 1.3%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 28.5 days. On January 30, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,631 tons, a weekly increase of 8.8% [12] - Cost: The sentiment of price - holding at the ore end is relatively strong. On January 30, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 2,050 - 2,300 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 4.4%. Observe the sustainability of cost support at the smelting end [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - On January 30, the evening quotation of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 155,107 yuan, a weekly decrease of 5.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,450 yuan. The closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 148,200 yuan, a weekly decrease of 18.36% [20] - The average discount in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange is - 850 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short - position of the main seats of lithium carbonate contracts decreased slightly this week [23] - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 2,500 yuan [26] 3. Supply Side - On January 29, SMM reported the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate at 21,569 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. The estimated domestic lithium carbonate output in January 2026 was 97,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 56.7% [31] - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 60,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, a year - on - year increase of 48.7%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 70.3%. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 13,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and an annual year - on - year increase of 17.4% [34] - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 3.1% month - on - month to 14,990 tons, with an annual year - on - year increase of 15.1%. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 10,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% and an annual year - on - year increase of 27.3% [37] - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. The total domestic lithium carbonate imports in 2025 were about 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In December 2025, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,704.02 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [40] 4. Demand Side - The battery sector dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. Future growth in lithium salt consumption will still rely on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited and weak growth [44] - The Passenger Car Association estimated that the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles in January would be around 800,000, with a penetration rate of about 44.4% [47] - In 2025, about 3.77 million new energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. In the same year, about 1.6 million new energy vehicles were sold in the United States, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [50] - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. In December, the domestic power - battery loading volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic power - battery loading volume was 769.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.4% [53] - In 2025, the domestic output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 58.8% year - on - year, and the output of ternary materials increased by 23.5% year - on - year. The first quarter is a critical window period for "grabbing exports" of batteries. The off - season demand is expected to increase, and the decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [56] 5. Inventory - On January 29, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 107,482 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,414 tons (- 1.3%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 28.5 days. On January 30, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,631 tons, a weekly increase of 8.8% [63] - Driven by the "grabbing exports" demand, the inventory of cathode materials has decreased. The inventories of power batteries and energy - storage batteries are at recent low levels [66] 6. Cost Side - On January 30, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 2,050 - 2,300 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 4.4%. The sentiment of price - holding at the ore end is relatively strong. Observe the sustainability of cost support at the smelting end [73] - In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines has significantly supplemented the supply [76]