国债周报：淡季下制造业PMI走弱，债市情绪好转-20260131

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side has warmed up driven by exports, but the marginal effect of policies on the demand side has weakened, leading to a slowdown in durable - goods consumption. There is still a drag from the real - estate market and insufficient consumer confidence, and domestic demand still awaits stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The export data in December was stronger than expected, with exports to non - US regions maintaining resilience [10]. - The central bank has carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Fed decided not to cut interest rates in January, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year [10]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts under the background of weak domestic demand recovery, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after the structural interest rate cut. The bond market's allocation power is strong recently, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation - Production has warmed up due to exports, while durable - goods consumption has slowed down. The real - estate market drags and consumer confidence is insufficient. Exports in December were better than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilience in non - US regions [10]. - The central bank carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and signaled more room for cuts. The Fed did not cut rates in January, and the expected rate - cut time was postponed to mid - year [10]. - Liquidity - The central bank conducted 176.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, with 118.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 20 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [12]. - Interest Rates - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, down 2.34 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.29%, down 0.30 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, up 2.00 BP week - on - week [12]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing price, annualized premium/discount, settlement price, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing price and trading volume of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [17][22][25][27]. 3. Main Economic Data - Domestic Economy - GDP: The real GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations, and the economy showed resilience in the first three quarters [42]. - PMI: In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points. The manufacturing supply and demand weakened, with the production index down 1.1 percentage points to 50.6% and new orders down 1.6 points to 49.2 [42][48]. - Price Index: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI rose by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month data showed CPI up 0.2%, core CPI up 0.2%, and PPI up 0.2% [51]. - Exports and Imports: In December 2025, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [54]. - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: In December, industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [57]. - Investment and Real Estate: From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and real - estate investment was - 17.2%. In December, the month - on - month change of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year change was - 6.1% [61]. - Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the third quarter, the US GDP at current prices was 3.1095 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.30%. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year [70]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the euro - area CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service PMI was 52.4 [76][79]. 4. Liquidity - In December, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector was stable [84][87]. - The MLF balance in December was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates - Domestic treasury bond yields: The 2 - year yield was 1.38%, the 5 - year yield was 1.58%, the 10 - year yield was 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield was 2.29% [95]. - US treasury bond yield: The 10 - year yield was 4.26% [95]. - Exchange Rates - Not specifically analyzed in detail, but the report presents the USDCNH spot exchange rate and the US dollar index [106].