Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The alumina futures price rebounded this week due to macro - optimistic sentiment and concerns about ore supply stability caused by a mine workers' strike in Guinea. However, the alumina smelting end has an over - capacity situation that is difficult to change in the short term, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend. The market's expectation of the implementation of supply contraction policies has increased, but a continuous rebound still faces three dilemmas: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward - moving cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Futures Price: As of 3 pm on January 30, the alumina index rose 1.8% to 2768 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 103,000 lots to 614,000 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the 03 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 57 yuan/ton [11][23] - Spot Price: This week, alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Henan decreased by 25 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, while those in Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang remained flat. Inventory accumulation continues, and most regional spot prices are still under pressure [11][20] - Inventory: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 78,000 tons to 5.565 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 66,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 22,000 tons, and increased by 10,000 tons respectively. The SHFE alumina warehouse receipts increased by 32,400 tons to 171,100 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory reached 265,200 tons, an increase of 42,700 tons from last week [11][69][71] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Price: Alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline, with Guangxi, Guizhou, and Henan seeing price drops, and Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang remaining stable due to continuous inventory accumulation [20] - Futures Price and Basis: The alumina index rose 1.8% to 2768 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was at a discount to the 03 contract, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts was - 57 yuan/ton [11][23] - Bauxite Price: Domestic bauxite prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 61 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian bauxite remained at 60 US dollars/ton. The bauxite market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to decline [28] 3. Supply - side - Bauxite Production and Import: In December 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.94 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.16%. The total import in 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48%. Imports from Guinea increased, while those from Australia decreased [32][34] - Bauxite Inventory: In December 2025, China's bauxite inventory increased by 2.97 million tons to 56.26 million tons, remaining at a high level in the past five years. Inventory in Shanxi and Henan decreased, and the increase mainly came from Shandong [41] - Alumina Production: In December 2025, China's alumina production was 8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.75% and a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. As of January 30, 2026, the weekly alumina production was 1.83 million tons, a slight decrease of 9,000 tons from last week due to profit - related production cuts [43][45] - Alumina Factory Profit: Alumina factory profits are under pressure. Guangxi has relatively high production profits, while some regions using overseas ores are facing losses [48] - Alumina Import and Export: In December 2025, the net import of alumina was 21,900 tons. As of January 30, the Australian FOB price rose to 304 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was 79 yuan/ton, with the import window closed [50][52] - Overseas Alumina Production: In December 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.66% and a month - on - month increase of 4.23% [54] 4. Demand - side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.05% and a month - on - month increase of 4.02% [59] - Electrolytic Aluminum Operation and Start - up: In December 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.69 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 96.76% [62] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides an alumina balance sheet showing data on supply, demand, net exports, etc., for different months in 2025 and estimated data for some periods [65] 6. Inventory - The total social inventory of alumina increased this week, with changes in different types of inventory. The SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and delivery warehouse inventory also increased [69][71]
氧化铝周报 2026/01/31：现实基本面仍存压力，关注矿端潜在扰动-20260131
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-31 14:28