1月制造业PMI点评：关注价的积极信号

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8pct; the official non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a month - on - month decrease of 0.8pct; the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9pct from the previous month. The PMI returned below the boom - bust line due to factors such as demand overdraft at the end of the previous year, early holiday closures around the Spring Festival, and the impact of cold snaps on construction demand [5][8]. - Positive signals include the simultaneous recovery of price indices and a continued decline in the proportion of enterprises reporting insufficient demand in January, indicating that the direction of demand stabilization remains unchanged [5][11]. - For the bond market, the decline in PMI is affected by short - term factors. The price increase expectations brought by the transformation of new and old driving forces and "anti - involution" are difficult to disprove for the time being. The PMI may continue to weaken in February during the Spring Festival, but the "Golden March" may see a strong recovery, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of fundamental data on bond market expectations [5][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: Short - term factors lead to a return to the contraction range 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Orders decline more deeply while production remains in expansion - New orders dropped to 49.2% in January, returning to the contraction range, reflecting the demand overdraft effect from the previous month. The month - on - month decline in new orders was 1.6pct, lower than most previous periods but better than January 2025. Domestic demand orders slowed down more significantly than new export orders [15]. - Production slowed down but remained in the expansion range. In January, production decreased by 1.1pct month - on - month to 50.6%. The decline in production was due to pressure on the demand side, and the production index of the consumer goods manufacturing industry dropped below the boom - bust line, while the production of new - driving - force industries remained highly prosperous, increasing the differentiation [16]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Strong imports and weakening export orders - New export orders decreased by 1.2pct month - on - month to 47.8%, with the contraction intensifying. Factors such as new US tariffs on some high - tech manufacturing products, trade tariff frictions between the US and Europe, and the approaching Spring Festival led to a slowdown in the growth of new export orders. However, imports increased by 0.3pct month - on - month to 47.3%, showing a stable improvement for three consecutive months [20]. 3.1.3 Price: Both purchase and ex - factory prices rise, but profits may still be squeezed - In January, the raw material purchase price and ex - factory price increased by 3.0pct and 1.7pct month - on - month to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively. The ex - factory price returned above the boom - bust line for the first time since May 2024. However, the increase in the ex - factory price was less than that of raw materials, indicating limited downstream demand to absorb price increases and potential pressure on corporate profits [24]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Slower destocking of finished products - Raw material inventory decreased by 0.4pct month - on - month to 47.4%, indicating that production remained prosperous and procurement slowed down, with a relatively faster digestion of raw materials. Finished product inventory increased by 0.4pct month - on - month to 48.6%, with the destocking pressure rising for three consecutive months [28]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: Seasonal factors affect construction, leading to a significant slowdown in construction activities - In January, the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8pct. The service industry PMI decreased by 0.2pct month - on - month to 49.5%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 4.0pct month - on - month to 48.8%, shifting from expansion to contraction [29]. - The slowdown in construction activities was due to cold weather and the approaching Spring Festival. Construction projects entered the off - season, and investment demand is expected to be further released after the Spring Festival in February [29]. - The service industry showed potential demand and industry differentiation. In January, the financial industry in the service sector was highly prosperous, while industries such as the Internet and railway transportation declined, and the retail and catering industries remained in the contraction range. The Spring Festival holiday may boost the consumer service industry in February [32].