Changjiang Securities·2026-01-31 14:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The development path of the overseas AI industry shows a two-year lag from significant capital expenditure (Capex) investments in 2023 to the explosion of token usage in 2025. Domestic companies are expected to start their AI capital expenditure cycle in the second half of 2024, one year behind their overseas counterparts [3][6][7] - The report highlights that cloud service providers (CSPs) will be the first to benefit from the token explosion, as they serve as the backbone for AI applications. Companies with a full-stack AI layout are likely to achieve a positive cycle of AI investment returns more quickly [3][9] Summary by Sections Overseas Observation - The overseas AI industry is expected to experience a three-stage cycle: high Capex investment in 2023, revenue growth for cloud providers in 2024, and a surge in token usage in 2025. The high Capex investments are primarily directed towards model training, which is costly [6][21][36] Domestic Observation - Domestic companies are lagging behind their overseas counterparts by about a year in terms of investment. The leading domestic cloud provider, Alibaba Cloud, is projected to see its revenue growth rebound significantly starting in the second half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate expected to rise from 3% to 26% [7][48] Domestic Forecast - The report predicts that the domestic token explosion will occur in 2026, following the overseas pattern. As of now, the leading cloud provider, Alibaba Cloud, has begun to realize revenue growth, primarily driven by training demand, while inference demand is gradually increasing [8][52] Cloud Computing as the Core of AI - Cloud computing is described as the "blood" of applications, set to benefit first from the token explosion. The demand for cloud services is expected to shift from resource pricing to value pricing, potentially increasing gross margins for cloud resources [9][56] Competitive Landscape - The competition among major players in the AI space will hinge on two factors: the capability of their models and the ability to form effective business closed loops. Companies with a full-stack AI layout are better positioned to convert model advancements into business revenue or barriers [9][60][61]