Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2026-01-31 14:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The report anticipates that Alibaba's cloud business will accelerate growth in FY26Q3, while e-commerce growth may slow down [5] - Total revenue for FY26Q3 is expected to reach 288.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] - Adjusted EBITA margin is projected to be 11%, with adjusted EBITA declining by 43% to 31 billion RMB, primarily due to ongoing investments in the Taobao Flash Sale business [5] Financial Forecasts - For the Chinese e-commerce group, revenue is expected to be 164.3 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 23% [5] - The international digital commerce group is projected to generate revenue of 40.8 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of -5% [5] - The cloud intelligence group is expected to achieve revenue of 42.9 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 9% [5][6] Business Segment Analysis - The Chinese e-commerce group is facing growth pressure due to a high base effect and overall industry slowdown, with revenue expected to grow by only 3% [7] - The company aims to become the market leader in the Taobao Flash Sale segment, with significant investments planned to achieve this goal [7] - The international digital commerce group is focusing on key regions to enhance operational efficiency, with revenue expected to grow by 8% [8] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for FY2026 is 116.1 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 11% [8] - The projected PE ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 25, 23, and 17 times, respectively [8] - The report highlights a focus on e-commerce and cloud business segments, with the company maintaining a "Buy" rating due to its strategic initiatives [9]