家居估值修复延续，Suzano提涨2月浆价：轻工制造

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3] Core Insights - The sentiment in the real estate chain continues to improve, leading to a significant recovery in the valuations of leading home furnishing companies. Recommendations include Gujia Home, Oppein Home, and others, while also monitoring undervalued companies like Minhua Holdings and Zhibang Home [2] - Suzano, a Brazilian company, plans to increase the price of hardwood pulp by $10 per ton starting in February, which is expected to support paper prices. Continued recommendations include Sun Paper and attention to Jiulong Paper and Bohui Paper [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a valuation recovery due to improved policy expectations and a rebound in second-hand housing transactions. In 2025, Shanghai's second-hand home transactions reached 254,000 units, the highest in four years, indicating a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [6][12] - The sector's valuation and institutional holdings are at historical lows, suggesting a potential for short-term recovery in valuations [6] Paper Industry - As of January 30, 2026, the prices for various paper types remained stable, with double glue paper at 4725 CNY/ton, copper plate paper at 4660 CNY/ton, and white card paper at 4269 CNY/ton. However, box board paper saw a slight decrease to 3517.2 CNY/ton, while corrugated paper increased to 2676.25 CNY/ton [6][53] - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the price increase in hardwood pulp, with a projected rise of $10 per ton in Asian markets [6] Packaging - Xianggang Technology forecasts a net profit of 100 million to 138 million CNY for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.14% to 109.95% [6] - The company has received global certification for its PHA film products, enhancing its market position [6] Export Chain - The export chain is facing pressure due to the depreciation of the dollar and high performance baselines from the previous year. However, there is potential for recovery as U.S. interest rates decrease and real estate sales improve [6] Light Industry Consumption - Zhongshun Jierou expects a net profit of 300 million to 330 million CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 289% to 328%, driven by lower raw material costs and improved operational efficiency [6] - Recommendations include focusing on dental care leader Dengkang Oral and medical products driven by high growth in cotton soft towels and sanitary napkins [6] New Tobacco Products - Altria reported a net revenue of $23.279 billion for 2025, a decrease of 3.1%, primarily due to significant non-cash impairment charges in its e-cigarette business [6] Textile and Apparel - Huafu Fashion anticipates a net profit of 55 million to 75 million CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 126.47% to 136.10% [6]