国信期货铁合金周报：铁合金延续底部震荡-20260201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Manganese silicon: Last week, the manganese silicon futures rose and then fell, the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias, and the basis was at a high level. The overall production capacity of manganese silicon is in excess and there are new production capacities coming into operation. The terminal steel demand is not high, and the actual supply - demand is weak. However, the short - term production profit is poor, the production and price of manganese silicon are generally low, and the cost support is strong due to the mine's upward adjustment of far - month quotes. The manganese silicon market continues to cut production. It is recommended to view it as oscillating with a bullish bias [46]. - Ferrosilicon: Last week, the ferrosilicon futures rose and then fell, the spot price bottomed out and rebounded, and the basis remained flat. The spot price of thermal coal has stabilized at the bottom, and the electricity price at the end of the year varies. The production profit of ferrosilicon is poor, and the production is at a low level. The ferrosilicon trend depends on energy price changes. Considering the peak season of thermal coal at the end of the year and the low ferrosilicon production, it is also recommended to view it as oscillating with a bullish bias [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Market Review - Important News: On January 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting; the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the power generation - side capacity price mechanism; at a press conference, it was reported that in 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6045 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the expenditure was 28.7395 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1% [5][6]. - Manganese Silicon Futures and Price Changes: The manganese silicon futures had a certain price trend, and the basis, price, and their changes in different regions and for different ore varieties were presented. For example, the basis in Inner Mongolia had a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%, and the spot price of Australian 44Mn had a year - on - year decrease of 15.31% [7][9]. - Ferrosilicon Futures and Basis: The ferrosilicon futures also rose and then fell, and the basis situation in the production area was shown [12]. - Main Production Area Electricity and Coal Prices: The changes in electricity prices in main production areas such as Ningxia, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia, as well as the coal prices in main production areas and ports were presented [17][19] Part 2: Overview of the Manganese Silicon Industry Chain - Manganese Ore: The price, import volume, and inventory of manganese ore over the years were presented, as well as the profit estimation, production volume, and the relationship with steel demand in the manganese silicon industry [23][26][28] Part 3: Overview of the Ferrosilicon Industry Chain - Ferrosilicon: The profit estimation, production volume, and the relationship with steel demand in the ferrosilicon industry were presented [37][40] Part 4: Outlook for the Future - Manganese Silicon: It is recommended to view the manganese silicon market as oscillating with a bullish bias due to factors such as cost support and production cuts [46]. - Ferrosilicon: It is also recommended to view the ferrosilicon market as oscillating with a bullish bias considering the energy price and production situation [46]