国信期货有色（镍）周报：高位震荡，上冲乏力-20260201

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "High-level Volatility, Lack of Upward Momentum - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated February 1, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and future outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - The section presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Upstream: It shows the inventory of nickel ore ports in China [10] - Midstream: It covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel [13][15][17] - Downstream: It includes the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy storage batteries and new energy vehicles [19][21][26][29] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on January 29, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%. Market analysis predicts the first interest rate cut may be postponed to June 2026 [34] - In China, economic data in December 2025 provides a positive start for 2026. The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, non - manufacturing business activity index reached 50.2%, and the CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [34] - The Shanghai nickel market showed a volatile trend this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level, and supply disturbance factors are still at play. The market is in high - level consolidation [34] - It is expected that the operating range of the main Shanghai nickel contract is approximately 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main stainless steel contract is about 13,800 - 15,500 yuan/ton [34]