有色-基本金属行业周报全球宏观情绪退潮，金属价格波动加剧

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating sharply due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership. Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for lower interest rates have positively impacted precious metals [3][6][29] - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, with expectations for continued price increases in the long term due to global monetary and debt concerns [7][21] - Silver has shown a dramatic price drop recently, attributed to profit-taking and market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements, but the underlying supply-demand dynamics remain supportive of future price increases [8][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell by 1.52% to $4,907.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 17.44% to $85.25 per ounce. In contrast, SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to ¥1,161.42 per gram, and SHFE silver increased by 11.92% to ¥27,941.00 per kilogram [1][33] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 19.29% to 57.57, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving Iran, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, leading to increased volatility in their prices [3][6][29] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices decreased by 0.44% to $13,070.50 per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.20% to $3,135.50 per ton. Zinc, however, saw a rise of 3.09% to $3,370.00 per ton [9] - The SHFE market showed copper prices increasing by 2.31% to ¥103,680.00 per ton, with aluminum and zinc also experiencing gains [9] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines and structural demand from emerging industries are expected to support copper prices in the long term, despite current demand weakness in China [10][24] Small Metals - Magnesium prices rose by 1.45% to ¥18,240 per ton, driven by increased demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and stable supply from major production areas [19] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, supported by tight supply and steady demand from steel manufacturers [20]