策略周报：衡以待：行情下半场的配置思路

Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to maintain stability and has further upward potential, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended, particularly focusing on technology represented by AI applications and traditional assets like liquor and real estate[1] - Since December 17, 2025, the A-share spring market has gradually unfolded, with significant contributions from broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds[1] - The cumulative excess returns of growth and cyclical sectors have recently declined, while the negative excess returns of financial and consumer sectors have significantly recovered[1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, during spring market periods, both growth and value styles have performed well, with average maximum gains of 24.0% for growth and 23.5% for value since 2005[2] - The current market structure is showing signs of convergence towards balance as the spring market progresses into its later stages, consistent with historical patterns observed in previous bull markets[2] - The A-share industry rotation strength was at a historical low of 18% as of January 23, indicating a lack of significant rotation, but this metric has recently shown signs of recovery[1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current A-share index has a potential upside of approximately 20%, while the maximum increase since December 17, 2025, has only been 9.8%, indicating room for growth[3] - Continued macroeconomic policy support is expected to provide a fundamental basis for market growth, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market as announced by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development[3] - The upcoming bull market in 2026 is anticipated to enter its later stages, driven by the recovery of macro and micro fundamentals and increased participation from retail investors[3]