策略周末谈（0201）：大炼化，下一个有色

Group 1 - The underlying logic of the non-ferrous metals, liquor, and large refining sectors is interconnected, driven by the anticipated liquidity from the Federal Reserve's QE in 2026, which is expected to enhance the super cycle of commodities [1][10] - The current investment in the large refining sector is likened to the investment in non-ferrous metals last year, with expectations of a significant price increase in oil and chemical products by 2026, following the patterns observed in the non-ferrous sector [2][14] - The "anti-involution" trend in China is contributing to the upward momentum in the large refining sector, as capital expenditure is being restrained, leading to a significant slowdown in new capacity additions and a clearing of inventories, which supports future price elasticity [3][16] Group 2 - The large refining sector is still at a low valuation level, with significant room for valuation recovery compared to the non-ferrous sector, which has already experienced a systematic valuation increase [4][21] - Recent inflows from public funds, foreign investments, and ETFs into the large refining sector indicate a timely opportunity for investment, as the sector is positioned for a major upward trend [6][27] - The upcoming Federal Reserve QE in 2026 is expected to create a favorable environment for the large refining sector, alongside the anticipated recovery in consumer demand and high-end manufacturing sectors [7][37]