哈尔斯（002615）：盈利逐季改善可期，内拓外延、品牌成长加速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in profitability, driven by both internal expansion and brand growth [2] - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 55 million to 81 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 80.9% to 71.5% [1][2] - The company is positioned as a core global supplier, with optimistic order prospects for 2026, supported by the ramp-up of overseas production capacity [2] - The brand's transformation into a fashionable accessory is expected to drive significant revenue growth, with a goal for brand revenue to approach manufacturing revenue by 2028 [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 2,407 million yuan, with projections of 3,332 million yuan for 2024 and 3,278 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -0.9%, 38.4%, and -1.6% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 250 million yuan in 2023, decreasing to 71 million yuan in 2025, and then recovering to 272 million yuan in 2026 and 386 million yuan in 2027 [4] - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 31.2% in 2023 to 26.2% in 2025, before stabilizing around 28.1% by 2027 [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.15 yuan, with a significant recovery to 0.58 yuan in 2026 and 0.83 yuan in 2027 [4]