债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化（2026年第5期）

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2026.1.26 - 2026.1.30), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased by 2bp from 1.83% last Friday to 1.81% this Friday. The bond market remained range - bound this week. Due to the Spring Festival, fundamental data may be announced in March and may be seasonally affected, with no obvious trading theme. After the extreme performance of the "stock - bond seesaw" in the third quarter of last year, the stock market is moving towards a "slow bull", and bonds lack an obvious trend. The January 2026 PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating不畅 in cost transmission and limited expansion for enterprises. The central bank's new liquidity arrangement for non - bank institutions aims to strengthen liquidity control and gradually shift the policy rate to the overnight rate, not simply to loosen or tighten liquidity [9][10][15]. - This week (0126 - 0130), there were significant fluctuations in major asset classes. The short - end of US stocks, precious metals, and US Treasury yields adjusted significantly, and the US dollar slightly recovered. The market believes that the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2026 may be restrained. In 2026, the US economy faces five demand expansion factors, which may push the economic growth rate to 2.5% but also lead to inflation rising to a high of 3% - 3.5%, forming a "re - inflation" risk. The Fed paused its rate - cut cycle, and the future Fed's monetary policy still has high uncertainty [16][17]. Summary of Each Section 1. One - Week Viewpoints - Analysis of 10 - year Treasury Bond Yield: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased by 2bp. Through daily analysis, factors such as government bond net payment, industrial enterprise profit data, expectations of new liquidity management tools, stock market trends, and the determination of the Fed Chairman candidate affected the yield fluctuations [9][10]. - Analysis of 2026 January PMI Data: The January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Production, new orders, and raw material inventory indexes decreased. The increase in the purchase price of major raw materials and the purchase volume, and the decrease in production activity business expectations, new order indexes, and ex - factory prices indicate cost transmission problems and limited expansion for enterprises [15]. - Analysis of the Central Bank's Liquidity Arrangement for Non - bank Institutions: The central bank may aim to strengthen liquidity control and gradually shift the policy rate to the overnight rate to control the range of money market interest rates [15]. - Analysis of US Economic Data and the Trend of US Treasury Yields: This week, major asset classes fluctuated significantly. The US economy in 2026 may face demand expansion factors, but also "re - inflation" risks. The Fed paused the rate - cut cycle, and the future monetary policy is highly uncertain. The US November 2025 durable goods orders increased, December PPI was higher than expected, and unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market may be stabilizing [16][17][18]. 2. Domestic and International Data Summary 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open Market Operations: From 2026/1/23 to 2026/1/30, the total net investment in open - market operations was 3805 billion yuan [32]. - Interest Rate Comparison: The money - market interest rates showed different trends compared with last week, and the issuance and yield of interest - rate bonds also had corresponding changes [33][34][36][37]. 2.2 Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel and Metal Prices: Steel prices generally declined, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [53]. - Other Market Data: Data on 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures, coking coal, and thermal coal prices, inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rates, Yu'E Bao yields, vegetable price indexes, RJ/CRB commodity and Nanhua industrial product price indexes, and Brent and WTI crude oil prices were provided [54][55][58][59][60][61][63]. 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale and Structure: This week, 68 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 439.275 billion yuan, including 207.003 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 39.203 billion yuan in new general bonds, and 193.069 billion yuan in new special bonds. The repayment amount was 128.42 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 310.854 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive fields. Thirteen provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds, and five provinces and municipalities issued special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts [64][66][69]. - Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds: This week, the total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds was 4 billion yuan, all from Chongqing. Since November 15, 2024, the total early redemption scale of national urban investment bonds was 120.647 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest scale [76][79]. 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: This week, the local government bond stock was 55.39 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 365.157 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.66%. The top three provinces with active trading were Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Shandong, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y. The local government bond yields generally declined this week [82][84]. 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plans of local government bonds in some regions such as Chongqing, Zhejiang, Tibet, and Tianjin from February 2 to February 6, 2026, were presented [86][87]. 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Overall Issuance: This week, 360 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 307.398 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 151.709 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 155.689 billion yuan, an increase of 12.194 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of 16.74 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 138.949 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of 62.98 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing amount of 31.465 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing amount of - 6.805 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing amount of 62.145 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing amount of 5.904 billion yuan [88][91][92]. 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds changed this week. The issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds decreased by 3.01bp, that of medium - term notes increased by 8.41bp, and that of corporate bonds decreased by 3.83bp [99]. 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - Transaction Volume: This week, the total credit bond trading volume was 596.755 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and credit ratings [100]. - Yield Changes: The yields of national development bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends this week [102][103][105]. 4.4 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally showed a differentiated trend this week, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed comprehensively [107][111][114]. 4.5 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed comprehensively [116][121][128]. 4.6 Trading Activity This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type were listed. The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, optional consumption, and real estate [130][131]. 4.7 Issuer Credit Rating Changes The issuer credit ratings or outlooks of several companies such as Wuxi High - tech Zone Venture Capital Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. were upgraded [132].